The German 2. Bundesliga match tonight is not the most interesting or high-quality soccer match today, but in my opinion, it is the best one betting-wise. Chelsea with their new coach is in great form and heavy favorites against Everton who are also a good team but their odds are too low for serious valuebetting. Now let’s take a closer look at both Hamburg and Kiel.. Both teams have a good chance for promotion to the Bundesliga so I’m expecting an intense and physical battle. The league table doesn’t fully reflect the true class of the teams here. In terms of expected goals, which one of the key tools in serious soccer betting, the hosts are in fact the best team in the pretty competitive 2. Bundesliga so far, in fact clearly better than Kiel. Hamburg are a traditional big team in Germany with good resources and one could say they belong the Bundesliga. Don’t get me wrong - Kiel are also a good team and have played well away from home, but this is probably mostly a coincidence and probably affects the odds here too much. As we know the home advantage is pretty small without spectators and overall statistics in big European soccer leagues confirm this fact.

Hamburg would definitely need a win as they currently sit on the 4th place and are several points behind the leaders Bochum and even a few points behind tonight’s opponents Kiel. A draw would be fairly disappointing for them as their most important goal for the season is to promote to the highest level, the Bundesliga. They will probably take a little more risk offensively, put a lot of pressure on the visitors and really go for the win! This fact lowers the probability of a draw a little and increases their chances of winning hence making our bet better in terms of expected value.

I must admit Hamburg were definitely not at their best in the most recent matches versus Wurzburg (lost 2-3) and St. Pauli (lost 0-1). They were not even particularly unlucky in these matches. But again, these performances clearly affect the odds here too much. One of the keys to winning in sports betting is not reacting too much to latest results but taking a look at expected goals and a team’s overall class. Hamburg despitea few players, for example their captain, have the potential and surely the motivation to take three points today. I expect them to be 2nd in the league at the end of the season whereas I rate Kiel as the 5th best team in the league and not to promote to the Bundesliga. The hosts have 50% chance to win today.