Mechelen VS Seraing

Seraing try to challenge Mechelen in this Belgian Cup 1/8-final clash at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is certainly not the main priority for either team this season but I expect both teams to take the match seriously. However - typically for a cup match in most countries – some squad rotation from both teams' coaches – to offer young, promising players to prove their skills.. Even so, with the probable lineups today the host are big favorites - the have a 70% chance to win. Both teams play in the Jupiler Pro League and the difference between the teams in the hosts favor is even bigger than the standings reflect1 Mechelen have 18 points to their account – Seraing are the rock-bottom team and have grabbed just 11 points so far! They have allowed 33 goals – the hosts' number is 30 and they indeed do have some defensive weaknesses.. However, in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) they should have conceded just 26.78 goals. Seraing have allowed 33 goals but their xGA is 36.12. Indeed, even in this area the hosts do have a clear edge. Mechelen have much more offensive power than the poor visitors and have scored 24 so for in the league. They still do have potential to improve in this area of the game and I trust their under-rated coach's skills to work on this. They would need to be a little more creative and pass the ball faster near the opponent's goal. I would not be at all surprised if Seraing's lame offense were to fail to score a single goal here – they have netted the ball just 16 times in Jupiler Pro League.

Seraing have lost six of their latest seven games and in the the two most recent matches they have failed to score any goals and allowed seven themselves! They have not played since the 4th of this month when they lost to a Greek team AEK Athens 0-2 in a friendly match. 16 days is a bit too long time between matches so the hosts have an edge in this sense as they played a draw six days ago against a pretty strong Spanish team Espanyol. The final score in this friendly match was 1-1. Before the friendly game Seraing were horrible bad and lost 0-5 to Leuven, not even a super-strong team - 8th in the standings. It was indeed an abysmal performance even taking into account Sissoko's red card in the first half. The score was 2-0 for the hosts already when he was sent off. Leuven recorded 25 goal attempts - Seraing's number was just four. The hosts also created much more shots on goal – 14-1! The hosts, on the other hand, are in good form and have taken two wins and two draws in their most recent four games. Before this they lost to a strong team Genk 1-3 away from home as massive underdogs. The match was, however, surprisingly balanced and Mechelen even had 59% ball possession and Genk only recorded one more shot in goal – 6-5. I expect a good number of fans at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne as the latest home match for the hosts was about six weeks ago..