Tapio头像
外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
  • 2

    方案

  • 17

    粉丝

More profit from Qatar? 世界杯阿根廷VS法国

2022-12-18

比赛分析

世界杯

已完赛

星期日2022-12-18 23:00

解读理由

Argentina VS France

Argentina and France go head to head for eh biggest trophy in football at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha late Sunday morning Beijing time. I expect a somewhat balanced and defensive battle here – typically for a final with massive stakes. 0-0 after the first half at least would not surprise anyone! I see the the match as more low-scoring than the betting market and the under 2.5 total goals is quite probable. The probability is 33%. This result would be enough for my fans and me to win! I have to give the moderate edge to have Argentina here - bigger than betting market does.. . After the shocking - and massively undeserved loss to Saudi Arabia 1-2 in the opening match Argentina have improved a lot. Even in this game they recorded much more xG than the Saudis. France have some injury/ (possible) sickness worries. Lucas Hernandez have a knee injury and is not expected play. Olivier Giroud has the same injury and his situation is unclear at the time of writing this preview. He has been a really important player for France scoring several goals in this tournament. Of course France have a a lot of excellent players but France are already missing the Real Madrid's super star Karim Benzema who has not played at all in Qatar. Furthermore, some of Frances's players have suffered from Camel Flu which has affected France's training and it is unclear which players - and to watch extent have been/are affected by this disease.. It is possible that many of France's players are not 100% fit going into this match.. I see Argentina having an at least 40% chance to win this during the 90 minutes of play.

France did easily beat Poland, a very disappointing team in this tournament as a whole, in the first round of play offs 3-1. Against England they were not overly convincing despite winning 2-1. Kane even missed a penalty late in the the match when the score was 2-1 for France. Had he scored I would not have been at all surprised to see England qualify for the next round.. England recorded more in expected goals (xG) in this match but of course the penalties affect the xG numbers a lot. Even so, I was surprised by the way England were able to defend Mbappe who could not create much danger.. France did deserve the win against Morocco (2-0) but the African did have theit chances to level to score to 1-1 in the second half. Again I was a little disappointed on France as a whole.. Argentina, on the other hand, would have deserved a win during the 90 minutes of play against the Netherlands but needed penalties after all to qualify. Messi has received a lot of praise in this tournament and has been better than in the 2014 and 2018 World Cups. He is not as fast as say 5-10 years ago but can make a difference in any game – at any moment! France do have a strong defense but the reigning champions' opponents in this tournament have still allowed still recorded 7.98 in xG. Argentina's opponents have recorded just 2.42! a very low number. Argentina have recorded a bit more xG themselves than France 13.44 – 12.09 are the exact numbers. Argentina have had 24h more time to rest which is a factor I believe is perhaps not given enough emphasis to! They crushed Croatia 3-0 after an even stronger performance than I would have expected and were able to save same energy in the later stages of the match. Croatia started very well but than Messi's team proved they deserve to play in the final! Let's also remember that Argentina played over 30 games without a defeat before the loss to the Saudis!

GOOD LUCK!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

阿根廷VS法国

北京时间周日上午晚些时候,阿根廷和法国将在多哈的哈利法国际体育场争夺足球界最大的奖杯。我预计在这里会有一场平衡和防守的战斗,尤其是在一场事关重大的决赛中。上半场之后0-0至少不会让任何人感到惊讶!我认为这场比赛比博彩市场的得分更低,总进球数很可能低于2.5。概率是33%。这个结果足以让我的粉丝和我赢了!我不得不承认阿根廷在这里有一定的优势——比博彩市场的优势更大。在首战1-2惨败沙特阿拉伯之后,阿根廷已经有了很大的进步。即使在这场比赛中,他们记录的xG也比沙特人多得多。法国有一些受伤/(可能)生病的担忧。卢卡斯·埃尔南德斯膝盖受伤,预计不会参加比赛。奥利维尔·吉鲁也受了同样的伤,他的情况在写这篇预告时还不清楚。他是法国队在本届比赛中打进数球的重要球员。当然法国队有很多优秀的球员,但是法国队已经失去了皇家马德里的超级球星卡里姆·本泽马,他在卡塔尔没有踢过任何比赛。此外,法国的一些球员患上了骆驼流感,这影响了法国的训练,目前还不清楚哪些球员已经或正在受到这种疾病的影响。有可能很多法国队的球员在这场比赛中并不是百分之百的健康。在90分钟的比赛中,我认为阿根廷队至少有40%的机会赢得比赛。

法国队在第一轮比赛中以3:1轻松击败了波兰队,波兰队在本届杯赛中整体表现非常令人失望。在对阵英格兰的比赛中,尽管他们以2-1获胜,但表现并不令人信服。在比赛最后阶段,法国队以2-1领先,凯恩甚至罚丢了点球。如果他进球了,我看到英格兰队晋级下一轮就一点也不惊讶了。英格兰在这场比赛中取得了更多的预期进球数(xG),但当然,点球对xG的影响很大。即便如此,我对英格兰能够防守姆巴佩的方式感到惊讶,他没有制造太多危险。法国确实应该以2-0的比分战胜摩洛哥,但是非洲人在下半场有机会将比分扳成1-1。我对整个法国还是有点失望。另一方面,阿根廷本应在对阵荷兰队的90分钟比赛中获胜,但毕竟需要点球才能出线。梅西在本届世界杯上获得了很多赞誉,表现比2014年和2018年世界杯都要好。他没有5-10年前那么快,但他可以在任何比赛中——在任何时刻——发挥作用!法国队确实有强大的防守,但本届锦标赛卫冕冠军的对手仍然有7.98的xG。阿根廷的对手只有2.42分!一个非常低的数字。阿根廷的xG比法国多一点,13.44 - 12.09是准确的数字。阿根廷队多了24小时的休息时间,我认为这是一个可能没有得到足够重视的因素!他们以3-0大胜克罗地亚,表现甚至比我预期的还要好,并且在比赛的后几个阶段也能节省同样的精力。克罗地亚队开局很好,但梅西的球队证明了他们值得参加决赛!让我们也记住,阿根廷在输给沙特之前,打了30多场比赛没有失败!

< / p > < p >祝你好运!


观点仅代表作者本人,不代表本站立场。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论,意见,倾向等都只是作者本人的观点,和平台,组织网站等第三方没有关系。