The first TOP 16 game on Sunday in the World Cup is going to be between France and Poland. In the group stage, France played very well against Australia (4:1) and was able to beat Denmark (2:1) but without key players, they lost to Tunisia 0:1. They became just the second reigning World champion to advance beyond the group stage since the turn of the century. In this game, I'm picking France with the handicap.

Poland had three different outcomes in the group stage. They started with a draw against Mexico (0:0), then they beat Saudi Arabia (2:0) but lost to Argentina (0:1). It was a very fortunate last day of the group stage because at one point their place in the standings was depending on yellow cards.

Throwing out the Tunisia match, France has looked like one of the best teams in the tournament thus far. France finished with the highest xG in the group stage out of every team left, despite not playing Kylian Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembele and Antoine Griezmann in their final group stage match.

Poland is most comfortable without the ball. They averaged only 34% possession per match in the group stage (30th out of 32 teams) and have only had 14 sequences in which they have completed 10 consecutive passes. France has 55. This strategy tends to lead to many opportunities for the opposing team as Poland allowed 6.1 xG and could be considered lucky as they only conceded two goals. At the same time, they have scored just twice and that was against the Arabians.

In my opinion, Poland is the worst team in the TOP 16 round. I don't see a chance for them to qualify for the next round and France is a very talented team in all positions. Poland didn't bother Argentina as they controlled the ball only 27% of the time and had just four shots and I'm confident that the French players will do something similar that will help to get an easy victory.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

周日世界杯16强的第一场比赛将在法国和波兰之间展开。小组赛中，法国队在对阵澳大利亚(4:1)时发挥出色，并以2:1击败丹麦(2:1)，但由于缺少关键球员，他们以0:1不敌突尼斯。他们成为世纪之交以来第二个小组出线的卫冕世界冠军。在这场比赛中，我选择了法国的弱项。

波兰队在小组赛中有三个不同的结果。他们先是0:0战平墨西哥，然后2:0击败沙特阿拉伯，但0:1负于阿根廷。这是小组赛最后一天非常幸运，因为他们在积分榜上的位置一度取决于黄牌。

在与突尼斯的比赛中出局后，法国队看起来是迄今为止欧洲杯上表现最好的球队之一。法国队在剩下的所有球队中以最高的xG结束小组赛，尽管他们最后一场小组赛没有踢上姆巴佩、吉鲁、登贝莱和格列兹曼。

波兰队在无球状态下表现最好。他们在小组赛的场均控球率只有34%(32支球队中排名第30)，并且只有14次连续完成10次传球。法国有55个。这种策略往往会给对方带来很多机会，比如波兰队只丢了6.1个球，可以被认为是幸运的，因为他们只丢了两个球。与此同时，他们只进了两球，而且还是对阵阿拉伯人。

在我看来，波兰是16强中最差的球队。我不认为他们有机会进入下一轮，而法国队在各个位置上都是一支非常有天赋的球队。波兰队没有打扰到阿根廷队，他们只有27%的控球时间，只有4次射门，我相信法国球员也会做类似的事情，帮助他们轻松取胜。