Sporting CP vs SC Farense

Sporting host Farense for this Portuguese League Cup round battle at Estádio José Alvalade in the capital of this awesome football country early Thursday morning Beijing time. It has been a very disappointing season for Sporting as a whole – for their high standards I mean. In the Champions League they finished in third place in Group D – behind Tottenham and Frankfurt. They will continue their European campaign in the Europa League early next year.. Last season they suffered a 0-5 defeat on aggregate in the round of 16 and even managed to avoid defeat in Manchester in the second leg. This performance received a lot of positive media attention and many fans and amateur bettors surely still think of last season Sporting when placing a bet.. This is a mistake. They once lost some important players after last season but, even taking that into account, they have looked much weaker than I would have expected before the 2022-2023 season started. Last season they finished in 2nd place, after Porto, with 85 points to their account. We must not forget that this was, however, some five points more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS) and also this season they have been a little lucky in terms of xPTS. The bookies clearly fail to realize how much their level of football has weakened this season and offer way too low odds them here..

Sporting won their most recent match – 2-1 away from home against a lowly Famalicao in Liga Portugal but looked far from their best level. The hosts had their chances and a draw would no have been too unjustified.. They are in the only in the 4th place in the standings with 25 points and a score difference of 26:15. The leaders, Benfica, have taken 37 points already! I would not be surprised to see Sporting fail to even make it to top-3 as Braga have looked stronger than lame Sporting this season. I expect their talented and smart coach, Ruben Amorim,37, to do some squad rotating here offering promising young guys a chance to shine! League Cup is most certainly not the main thing for the hosts – not even close. The atmosphere at the stadium is not going to be that great in a low-stakes game against small team – especially when there are interesting World Cup matches played tonight. The home fans are used to Champions League and Liga Portugal matches which are of totally different quality of course! However, the home advantage must not be completely ignored here..The hosts are clearly better than the visitors in all areas of the game, especially in terms of offensive creativity. Indeed, even with the possibly pretty heavy squad rotation, Sporting have a 73% chance to take all three points. Sporting Lisbon will be without the Uruguayan duo of Manuel Ugarte and Sebastian Coates, who are in the World Cup. Abdul Fatawu Issahaku and Morita are both in Qatar as well Issahaku plays for Ghana and the latter for the ”land of samurais". In terms of injuries, Sporting will have to manage without Daniel Braganca (cruciate ligament) and Luis Neto (knee). They have won just one of their most recent 10 matches by more than two goal's difference and most probably will not do that today either. Indeed, the more motivated visitors, who have played very well in Liga Portugal2 so far this season – losing just once - have a 77% to avoid losing be more than two goals' difference! The last time this happened to them was on the 8th of February!. Farense have a good chance to be promoted back to the first tier as they currently occupy the second place - behind Moreirense - with 28 points. Their defense has been very solid this season which will be important today against a strong opponent with huge individual talent compared to players in the second tier.