Australia VS Denmark

Australia challenge Denmark in this in this group D round 3 clash at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah. This is the final round of group phase and the stakes are massive! Both teams have a genuine chance of making it to the Play Offs! Technically Australia even have a chance a chance to win the group but this is highly improbable as France top the standings with 6 points and a score difference if 6:2. Australia, on the other hand, have 3 points in the pocket but have a weak goal difference of 2:4. Denmark have just one point to their account. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. I am convinced that Australia will be very passive and try to defend a draw here - Denmark are expected to have 65-75% ball possession. A draw would secure the "Socceroos" second place if Tunisia do not beat the reigning World Champions, France. A scenario where Tunisia would have ”safe” lead – by at least to goals - is, of course, extremely unlikely..'

Once again I want to highlight that must not be fooled by the recent result here! Denmark are a superior team compared to the Aussies in all areas of the game! The biggest difference is in the midfield where world-class players from the English Premier League, the best league in the world, Hojberg (Tottenham) and Eriksen (Manchester United) are from a different planet compared to Australia's midfielders who play for teams like St. Pauli and Melbourne City. The Aussies clearly have an awesome team spirit - so do the Danes though - and the Socceroos seem very fit and are better on the pitch than the list of players on paper - or their total market value according to a well-known and highly-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com would indicate! However, in terms of individual skill-level the Danes are superior – not just the midfielders mentioned above but also defenders and strikers. Individual skill is, of course, very often not enough to win but Denmark also have a great coach, are tactically very good and patient. Most of their key players have played together in t the national team long-enough to know each other very well. Eriksen's near-death experience ( heart attack) in EURO 2020opener against Finland is reported to have made the team more than a just a national team - but more like a family. Today they will miss Delaney and possibly S. Kjaer who is not the most skilled guy but is a true leader on and off the pitch. Certainly not good news and I have taken this into account when estimating the probabilities here. Yes, Denmark do not have world-class striker but they still scored a lot of goals in the EURO 2020 – without their super star Eriksen – and destroyed opponents' defenses in the World Cup Qualification and in UEFA Nations League where they beat France – also in Paris! At home in Copenhagen they were much better than France's World class stars, K Mbappe etc. France did beat the Danes in the second round here in Qatar though 2-1 in a very an entertaining and high-class battle. They did deserve the 2-1 after recording 1.82 in expected goals (xG) Denmark's number was decent too 0.78. Denmark were not bad at all though and at least scored! Indeed, all the talk that they have difficulties scoring a goal are given too much emphasis in the media which, of course affects the odds too.. Let's remember that France are, in my view, the second-best team in Qatar, after the very convincing Brazil.

We must also remember that Denmark's FIFA ranking is very clearly better than Australia's. They are currently in the 10th place with 1666.57 points – Australia have occupy the 38th place with 14488.72. Australia were quite lucky even spot a this tournament as they beat Peru, as very, clear underdogs, in the final round of qualification. They were not the better team at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium (neutral location) but qualified through penalties after goalless 90+30 minutes. Denmark, the semi-finalists from EURO 2020 last year dominated their qualification group taking 27 points a and had an amazing score difference of 30:3. They need a win here and will take any risk necessary to get all three points! However, it does not matter for my fans and me if it is a draw or Australia score a late goal and win – probably on a counter attack..Indeed, we will go with Denmark to win with an estimation of 72%! For my fans looking for a better odds and willing to take a riskier bet I want to mention that odds on Denmark -1.5 goals are also too high – the chance of winning is 46%. If Denmark take the lead they will surely concentrate on protecting their on goal but in this scenario the sometimes over-confident Aussies have nothing to lose and will surely take enormous risks! A top-team like Denmark are likely to make them pay.. Denmark were unarguably disappointing against Tunisia, especially offensively, not denying that at all. Their performance was also heavily criticized in the media, especially in Denmark.. They did however, record some 1.70 (xG) - a quite good number! Tunisia's number was just 0.67. We should react too much heavily on one or two matches – the betting market, however, seems to have done just that.. Australia are the second-worst team in this tournament and whilst they defend with a great attitude and are an organized unit 90 minutes - + the nowadays 7-10 minutes extra time - is an awfully long time to just defend - mainly pretty near your own goal.. The Aussies were lucky to beat Tunisia as underdogs according the the bookies 1-0. Indeed, they recorded only 0.53 in expected goals in this clash. Tunisia's xG number was 1.45. I, unlike some amateur bettors/ tipsters who post picks online or on newspapers, did not raise Australia's power rating the reflects the teams' pure class after this win – in fact I l marginally lowered the rating as Australia seemed to massively lack the creativity and ability to pass the ball needed fast and with great accuracy needed at this level! The goal itself, however, was a fine effort and had nothing to do with luck but I would have expected more organized, long attacks from the Aussies against Tunisia who are, after all, much worse than Denmark by raw class!