Wales VS England

Wales and England lock horns in this Group B final round battle at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium in Al Rayyan early Wednesday morning Beijing time. I do not often go for favorites at low odds but will make an exception here. England need a win to secure the top position in this group. They may win the group with a draw - in case Iran and USA also end up in a draw in a match which, of course, is played at the same time. However, I do not think England will leave anything to chance here. They have a massive edge in all areas of the game! The biggest difference is, however, in offense. They have a big number of elite players who play in the biggest clubs on the planet to choose from. Most football fans know what Mount, Manchester City's Foden and Tottenham's Kane, to name a few, are capable of! Wales have Gareth Bale who, despite scoring a penalty goal against USA, is way past his prime! He did not play in the MLS for his club much last season (the season recently come to finish). Perhaps he had not earned the coach's trust.. He has, however, suffered from injuries and is surely not 100% fit. Wales heavily rely on him – Ramsay and Ampadu are quite good players too, but are no match to the English stars!

England crushed Iran 6-2 in the first round 6-2. The score flatters them but it was still a fine performance. England recorded 2.46 in expected goals – Iran's number was not bad either – 1.52. Against USA they were a bit rusty offensively but USA also played above their normal level. The expected goals (xG) number was 0.94 for England and 0.82 for USA. Even so, England were the slightly better team as whole on the pitch with 55% ball possession and more shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Wales were okay in the second half in their opening match as the Americans got tired and Wales started to be more aggressive and take more risks. In the first half USA completely dominated the events at the stadium and Wales were extremely passive and could create very little offensively. Something, however, happened during the 15 minutes break and USA, on the other hand, became not tired but also chose a too passive strategy in the second half and Wales started the chase creating a decent number of scoring chances. At the end one could say the 1-1 draw was a fair result.They, in fact, created more in expected goals than USA but the penalty of course affect the xG a lot.. Overall, I did not think way convincing though. Against Iran Wales were abysmal and the Iranians fully deserved the 2-0 win - and would have had a good genuine to take all three points even without Wales goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey's red card late into the second half. He will be out here which surely hurts Wales' chances.

My fans and I comfortably won the bet on Iran in this match where they recorded 1.92 in xG – Wales's number was just 0.89. Wales need a win here keep their dream of qualification for the Play Offs alive. Even win might not be enough though as Iran have three points in the pocket and USA have two.The probability of un upset win for ”Bale's gang” result is only 6-7%. They will have to take risks here which, I believe will cost them as defending has been their way to get decent results!Let's remember that Wales have not won any of their most recent seven matches! The most recent win was achieved in June in UEFA Nations League when they beat Ukraine at home but the win was an undeserved one as Ukraine had around 65% ball possession and also recorded much more shots on goal, goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also looked much better overall.Offensively Wales are much more limited than many football fans - or the betting market believe I would say they are the worst European team in the World Cup this area of the game! Their FIFA ranking of 19 is way too high and might affect the odds here.. England, on the other hand, are in 5th place which is more or less correct at the moment. England are massive favorites here!