Tondela VS Torreense

Tondela welcome Torreense for this League Cup round 2 battle at Estádio João Cardoso early Friday mornin Beijing time. The host were relegated from Liga Portugal to Liga Portugal2 for this season. It was definitely not a very good season but we must not forget that grabbing just a few more points would have saved them their place at the first tier.. They grabbed a total of 28 points last season. Torreense, on the other hand, had a better season but they played in Liga Portugal 3 (!) last season. The level of this league is significantly lower than that of Liga Portugal2. They finished third after the regular season with 41 points to their account. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved just 35 points. At the moment Torreense are in 15th place in Liga Portugal2 with a goal weak difference of 7:17 and just 10 points in the pocket. However, in my power ratings that reflects the teams' pure class I rate them as the second-worst team in this league with a total of 18 clubs! The League Cup is not the main priority for neither team and some squad rotation is expected here. This would, in my opinion, probably favor Tondela who have a deeper squad. Toreense will have to work had to avoid relegation.

Tondela are the bigger club by financial resources. Furthermore, According to a well-known and highly-respected German website Transfermarkt.com the hosts’ squad is valued at 5.75 euros. The visitors’ players have a total market value of just 4.20 million. The market values can, of course, be misleading, but the bookies and many professional football bettors pay more and more attention to these numbers. The football (players) market is, after all, a global one. However, if two players are equally good and one of them is 21 years old and the other is 31 years old the younger guy, of course, has a substantially bigger market value. In my view, Tondela's players'estimated market value million is too low and I would say some 8.5 million would be the fair number.! At least five players are under-valued! Torreense, on the other hand, are, in my view, weaker on the pitch than the 4.20 million would reflect.. At least four players – three of these defenders- are in reality, not worth their listed market value! 2.90 would be a more realistic total market value for their players.

They hosts currently occupy the 10th place in Liga Portugal2– and have grabbed just four points less than Estrela in 3rd place. In terms of xPTS they would have deserved more - 23 points to be precise! This might, in part explain the under-valuation by the bookmakers here.. Neither team have been in great form lately – especially results-wise. Even so, Tondela have looked much better on the pitch lately. The visitors have lost three of their most recent five games and were lucky to avoid defeat four days ago at home against Academico Viseu who recorded 60% ball possession and more scoring chances, shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. It was a 1-1 draw at home. Tondela, on the other hand, forced Estoril, a team who play at the highest level, to a 0-0 draw in this very competition in their most recent match. It was a pretty balanced battle and I liked the way Tondela defended. They were the underdogs on the betting market in this match. Before this they played a good game - as underdogs according to the bookies - against Moreirense and took a 1-1 draw at home. They did have the scoring chances to win but overall it was a balanced battle. Tondela play well-structured and often pretty cautious football – even at Estádio João Cardoso but against a lowly team like Torreense I expect them to be quite aggressive. Even so, the goal expectancy here is surely not high. The 13 goals Tondela have conceded in Liga Portugal2 is a low number – it is, in fact, lower than that of Moreirense who currently top the standings! Their offense has, however, lacked some speed, creativity and structure so far but Torreense's defense is, in reality, weaker than number of goals conceded (17) would indicate and they will probably create 4-6 good scoring chances.. 1-0 or 2-0 are very probable final scores. Tondela have a 59% chance to win.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

唐德拉VS托雷雷斯

北京时间周五凌晨，唐德拉欢迎托雷雷斯参加联赛杯第二轮的比赛，地点是Estádio João卡多索。本赛季，东道主从葡甲降级到葡甲。这绝对不是一个很好的赛季，但我们不能忘记，只要多拿几分就能保住他们在第一梯队的位置。上个赛季他们总共得到28分。另一方面，托雷雷斯有一个更好的赛季，但他们上个赛季踢的是西甲葡萄牙3 (!)这个联赛的水平明显低于葡萄牙甲。常规赛结束后，他们以41分排名第三。然而，就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们应该只得到35分。目前托雷雷斯在葡甲联赛中排名第15位，净胜球差为7:17，囊中仅有10分。然而，在我的力量评级，反映了球队的纯级别，我认为他们是第二糟糕的球队，在这个联盟共有18个俱乐部!联赛杯并不是两支球队的首要任务，预计将有一些阵容轮换。在我看来，这可能更有利于唐德拉，因为他的阵容更强大。托雷雷斯必须努力保级。

就财力而言，唐德拉是更大的俱乐部。此外，根据德国一家知名且备受尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，东道主的球队价值为5.75欧元。客队球员的总市值只有420万。当然，市场价值可能具有误导性，但博彩公司和许多职业足球投注者越来越关注这些数字。足球(球员)市场毕竟是一个全球性的市场。然而，如果两个球员同样优秀，其中一个21岁，另一个31岁，年轻的球员，当然有更大的市场价值。在我看来，唐德拉球员的身价太低了，我认为850万应该是一个合理的数字。至少有5名球员被低估了!另一方面，在我看来，托雷ense在球场上的表现比420万球迷所反映的要弱。至少有四名球员——其中三名后卫——在现实生活中，不值得他们的上市市值!2.90对他们的球员来说是一个更现实的总市值。

他们目前在葡甲联赛中排名第十，只比排名第三的埃斯特拉少4分。在xPTS方面，他们应该得到更多——准确地说，是23分!这可能在一定程度上解释了博彩公司低估估值的原因。这两支球队最近的状态都不太好，特别是在成绩方面。即便如此，唐德拉最近在球场上看起来好多了。客队最近五场比赛输了三场，四天前在主场幸运地避免了输给维苏学院，后者有60%的控球率和更多的进球机会，射门，进攻和危险进攻。双方在主场1-1战平。另一方面，唐德拉在最近的一场比赛中，迫使埃斯托里尔这支最高水平的球队以0-0战平。这是一场相当平衡的战斗，我喜欢唐德拉的防守方式。在这场比赛中，他们在博彩市场上处于劣势。在此之前，他们踢了一场不错的比赛——根据博彩公司的说法，他们是不被看好的球队——在主场1-1战平了莫雷伦斯。他们确实有机会赢得比赛，但总的来说这是一场平衡的战斗。唐德拉踢得很有条理，经常踢得很谨慎——即使在Estádio João卡多索，但面对像托雷雷斯这样的低水平球队，我认为他们会很有侵略性。即便如此，这里的目标预期肯定不高。唐德拉在葡甲联赛丢了13球，这是一个很低的数字——事实上，这比目前排名第一的莫雷伦斯还要低!到目前为止，他们的进攻缺乏一些速度、创造力和结构，但托雷雷斯的防守实际上比丢球数(17球)要弱，他们可能会创造4-6个不错的进球机会。1-0或2-0是很可能的最终比分。唐德拉有59%的机会获胜。