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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A lucrative match in Denmark! 丹麦甲桑德捷VS瓦埃勒

2022-11-14

比赛分析

丹麦甲

已完赛

星期二2022-11-15 02:00

解读理由

Sönderjyske VS Vejle

Sönderjyske welcome Vejle for this Danish 1st Division battle at Sydbank Park in Haderslev early Tuesday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is not high – the difference compared to Superliga, the first tier, is substantial. The biggest, sharpest bookies see these visitors as the favorites to take- at least at the time of writing this preview. The main rationale behind the odds is probably the league table. Indeed, Vejle currently top the standings with 34 points to their account – one point more than Hvidovre in the 2nd place. The visitors' goal difference is 36:18. They have been good this season – no denying that but, in my view, cannot be the favorites away from home against a team who is only marginally worse by pure class. I do rate Vejle is the best team in this league followed by Sönderjyske and Hvidovre in my power ratings that illustrate the teams pure class. Both Vejle and Sönderjyske had a difficult last season and were eventually relegated. Vejle did take six points more but today's hosts had a better goal difference. Not much has really changed from last season.. The hosts currently occupy the 6th place with 27 in the pocket and have a good goal difference of 32:23. At the moment the visitors do have a small edge in all areas of the game. The hosts have not been among the best home teams so far this season but this factor must be taken into account and it makes Sönderjyske narrow favorites here. With the recommended +0.5 goals handicap my fans and I have a slightly over 70% to win!

In terms of expected points (xPTS) Vejle would have deserved 31 points and in terms of expected goals (xG) 32 goals. As for the hosts, the numbers are 29 points and 31 goals. Vejle did play well in their most recent match beating Horsens in the Danish Cup 1-0 at home, but were also solid favorites in this match according to the betting market – priced around 1.95 to win in the regulation time. After that, however, they were very disappointing in against Hillerod, a pretty weak team, losing 2-3 at home as massive favorites according to the bookies. The visitors had 59% ball possession and recorded more total passes, completed passes and dangerous attacks. Vejle, on the other hand, did record two more shots on target and goal attempts as well as 11 more attacks. Before this they took a 5-4 away win over Nyköbing in an incredibly open and entertaining match. Allowing the whopping seven goals in two most recent matches in this league is quite worrying ahead of this game against a dangerous opponent. They would probably have to improve their defensive structure – or get lucky – to win here.. The hosts were also victorious in their most recent match beating Nyköbing 2-1 in the extra time away from home in a cup match. Before this they suffered an unlucky loss away from home 0-1 in the hands of F. Amager despite being clearly the better team in the pitch. They had 60% ball possession and created much more in expected goals than the hosts. Moreover, they recorded much more total passes, completed passes and dangerous attacks, shots on target. goal attempts and attacks. Perhaps this loss affects the odds too much here..

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

Sönderjyske VS Vejle

Sönderjyske欢迎Vejle参加北京时间周二凌晨在哈德斯列夫悉尼银行公园举行的丹麦甲级联赛之战。这个联赛的水平并不高——与顶级联赛超级联赛相比,差距很大。最大、最精明的博彩公司认为这些游客是最受欢迎的——至少在写这篇预览时是这样。这个概率背后的主要原因可能是积分榜。事实上,维耶勒目前以34分高居榜首,比第二名的赫维多维尔多了1分。客队净胜球为36:18。他们本赛季表现很好,这是不可否认的,但在我看来,他们不可能成为客场最受欢迎的球队,因为他们在纯水平上只差了一点点。我确实认为维耶勒是联赛中最好的球队,其次是Sönderjyske和赫维多夫,这说明了这支球队纯粹的级别。维耶勒和Sönderjyske上赛季都过得很艰难,最终都降级了。维耶勒确实多拿了6分,但今天的东道主有更好的净胜球。和上一季相比没有太大的变化。东道主目前排名第6,有27个进球,净胜球为32:23。目前客队在比赛的各个方面都有一定的优势。本赛季到目前为止,东道主并不是最好的主场球队之一,但这一因素必须考虑在内,这使得Sönderjyske在这里有微弱的优势。在推荐的+0.5球障碍下,我的球迷和我有略超过70%的胜算!

从预期积分(xPTS)来看,维耶勒应该得到31分,从预期进球数(xG)来看,应该得到32球。至于东道主,数据是29分31球。在最近的一场丹麦杯比赛中,维耶勒在主场1-0击败了霍森斯,但根据博彩市场的预测,他们在这场比赛中表现不错,在规定时间内获胜的概率约为1.95。然而,在那之后,他们在与希洛德的比赛中非常令人失望,这是一支相当弱的球队,他们在主场以2比3的比分输掉了比赛。客队控球率高达59%,总传球次数、完成传球次数和危险进攻次数均高于客队。另一方面,维耶勒的射正次数和射门次数都超过了2次,进攻次数也超过了11次。在此之前,他们客场5-4战胜了Nyköbing,这是一场非常开放和有趣的比赛。在最近的两场联赛中丢了7球,在面对一个危险的对手之前,这是相当令人担忧的。他们可能需要改进他们的防守结构,或者运气好,才能在这里取胜。在最近的一场杯赛中,东道主在客场的加时赛中以2-1击败了Nyköbing。在此之前,他们不幸在客场0-1输给了F. Amager,尽管他们显然是球场上更好的球队。他们有60%的控球率,比东道主创造了更多的预期进球。此外,他们记录了更多的总传球、完成传球和危险进攻、射正。进球尝试和进攻。也许这次失利对胜率的影响太大了。


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