Aarhus VS Nordsjaelland

Aarhus welcome Nordsjaelland this Landspokal (Danish Cup) battle at Ceres Park I expect both teams to be fully motivated here and field at least the majority of their best players. The largest sharpest bookies see this as more or less as a coin toss (50-50% match) - at least at the time of writing this analysis.. I believe the odds on the betting market are incorrect here! The visitors should be solid favorites here as they have a clear edge in all areas of the game. They have a 45% chance of winning but a draw would be enough for my fans and me to win with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on the visitors. The probability is very high - 75%. The biggest difference between the teams is in offense. Nordsjaelland's strikers and midfielders are much more skilled and they also attack in more a creative way as a team and have better structure than the hosts. They have netted the ball 24 times in the Danish Superliga where both teams play. They are having a terrific season and currently top the standings with a great number of points -32. They have lost just two games in this league and allowed just 12 goals – clearly the lowest number in Superliga. They have exceeded the bookies', probably most football journalists' and my expectations and I have considerably raised their power rating that illustrates' the teams pure class from my in depth preseason analysis. They are currently in 3rd place in this ranking. Bookies still seem to think they have massively over-performed/ been very lucky and, as a result, under-value them.. They have unarguably been a little lucky so far in terms of expected points (xPTS) though.

The visitors are in awesome form and have avoided defeat in seven games in a row and have lost just one of their most recent 12 matches! In their most recent match they faced Midtjylland - a lot stronger team than the standings would reflect - away from home and it was a balanced, goalless battle. Before this they were amazingly strong at home and completely dominated Horsens, a mediocre team winning 2-0 but it could easily have been a more clear win. Indeed, they had 65% ball possession and recorded 20 scoring attempts and eight shots on target as well as much more in expected goals. They did not allow the visitors any scoring attempts! Nordsjaelland also recorded much more total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 67-24. Aarhus, are definitely not a bad team but I do not see them having a big chance of qualifying for the Championship Group where top-6 teams play. They are currently in 7th place with 22 points but have taken more points than they would have deserved in terms of xPTS. Moreover, they are not a particularly good home team and have won just three of their latest matches in front of their fans.