Sevilla VS Real Sociedad

Sevilla and Real Socieded lock horns at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán for this Spanish LaLiga round 14 clash early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world after English Premier League and followed by German Bundesliga not far. Neither team are among the best teams in LaLiga but I believe we will still witness a pretty high-level and tight clash. Sevilla are having an extremely disappointing season in LaLiga. The fact that their level has dropped a lot from last season is not a big surprise to me as they lost a few very important defensive players. In my opinion the betting market gives too much emphasis on their potential for improvement.. They currently occupy the 17th place in this league with a total of 20 teams. They have just one more point to their account – 11 that is – than a small team Cadiz in 19th place. Their goal difference is very weak 12:20 and they have won just two of their 13 games so far in LaLiga. At home they have been horribly bad not winning a single match! Their goal difference at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán is 3:9! They do have a good home crowd but they must feel the pressure from the demanding fans.. The home advantage must, however, still be taken into consideration here, but in the difficult situation Sevilla are in it is certainly smaller than on average in this league!

In terms of expected points(xPTS) they would have deserved one more point than actual 11 and I definitely rate them higher in my power rating - that illustrates the teams's pure class - than the current 17th place they are in in the standings. Even so, it will surely take time to raise their level and subsequently climb up the standings. I would not be too surprised though if they failed to even finish in top-10. Their biggest problem has been shaky, often very disorganized defense. In terms of expected goal allowed(xGA) they should have conceded 26 goals - a very high number! They have looked a little more solid defensively recently though. Even so, they have won just two of their latest ten games. The most recent win came on the 25th of October when they beat a pretty limited Danish team, FC Copenhagen 3-0 at home in the Champions League. They were priced below 1.50 to win with the biggest, sharpest bookmakers with the biggest betting limits. They did deserve the win but the final score is still misleading. The Danes had their chances and should have scored at least once. They recorded a respectable 10 goal attempts – Sevilla's number was bigger though -16. Looking at the number of attacks(109-89) and dangerous attacks(52-48) we can see that Sevilla had only a somewhat small edge.. Champions League group phase was a disappointment with Sevilla as they only won this game against Copenhagen and recorded a total of five points and had a goal difference of 6:12. They will continue their European campaign in the Europa League. I do not think they will succeed in this competition either!

The betting market sees the hosts as slim favorites here - at the time of writing this preview at least. I have to disagree as Real Sociedad have been clearly better in all areas of the game so far this season! In my view they have a 40% chance of traveling home to Basque country with all three points in the pocket. However, my fans I would win the recommended bet even in case of a draw. Indeed, the chances of winning the eight bet in a row in this league is high! The visitors have taken 23 points so far and are in 7th place. However, I see them as the 4th best team in this league by pure class. They have several missing players in this much though which hurts their chances in this specific game. It seems, though, that the betting market has given too much emphasis to these the absentees.. Sevilla's situation in terms of missing players is also not optimal. Their injury woes continue in central defense, as summer signings Tanguy Nianzou and probably also Marcao (thigh injury) remain sidelined. Brazilian defensive midfielder Fernando has been suffering from illness and is expected to be out too. Montiel will also miss the game because of a red card.The visitors will still be without the Oyarzabal and Umar Sadiq, both out with cruciate ligament tears, while Mohamed-Ali Cho (thigh), Aihen Munoz (thigh) and Ander Barrenetxea (muscular) will also not be available. Furhermore, Elustondo will be suspended due to his red card last weekend.

In terms of XPTS Real Sociedad would have deserved 25 points. I expect them to be quite defensive here and aim to exploiting Sevilla's defensive weaknesses through fast counter attacks. This is something they are are very good at! They have also been good at Europa League winning Group E where for example Manchester United played. Real Sociedad took 15 points in six games scoring 10 goals and allowed just two goals! Their defense was extremely solid and well-organized in all six games. They even beat Man United at Old Trafford 1-0 after a brilliant performance frustrating ManU's offensive players and home fans. They lost the last group phase to Man United 0-1 though, but would have deserved at least a draw. They recorded much more scoring attempts(14-4) and shots on goal(4-1). We must remember though that they were missing many players in this match as well and the loss by one goal's difference was enough to secure the first place in the group. They were not quite at their best in their most recent match against Valencia, a dangerous team, and it was a 1-1 draw. Valencia, however, played above their normal level in this match. Even so, the hosts recorded much more in expected goals – 1.47-0.83 despite playing with 10 men for the most of the game after Elustando was sent of in the 17th minute. They showed great fighting spirit indeed!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

塞维利亚VS皇家社会

北京时间周四凌晨，塞维利亚和皇家社会在Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán球场打响了西班牙足球甲级联赛第14轮的角力。这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超，紧随其后的是德甲。两支球队都不是西甲联赛中最好的球队，但我相信我们仍然会看到一场相当高水平和激烈的冲突。塞维利亚在西甲经历了一个非常令人失望的赛季。他们的水平比上赛季下降了很多，这对我来说并不奇怪，因为他们失去了一些非常重要的防守球员。在我看来，博彩市场过于强调他们改进的潜力。目前，他们共有20支球队，在联赛中排名第17位。他们只比排名第19的小球队加的斯多得1分——11分。他们的净胜球只有12:20，在西甲联赛的13场比赛中只赢了2场。在主场，他们的表现糟透了，一场都没赢!他们在Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán球场的净胜球是3:9!他们确实有很好的主场观众，但他们必须感受到来自苛刻的球迷的压力。尽管如此，主场优势还是要考虑在内的，但塞维利亚现在的处境确实比联赛的平均水平要小!

就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们应该比实际的11分多得一分，我肯定会在我的力量评级中给他们更高的评级——这说明了这支球队的纯粹级别——而不是他们目前在积分榜上的第17名。即便如此，要想提高自己的水平，进而攀升到积分榜的位置，肯定还需要时间。如果他们连前十名都进不去，我也不会太惊讶。他们最大的问题是不稳定的，经常非常无组织的防守。根据预期失球(xGA)，他们应该丢了26个球——一个非常高的数字!不过，他们最近在防守端看起来更加稳固了。即便如此，他们最近的十场比赛只赢了两场。最近的一次胜利是在10月25日，他们在欧冠主场3-0击败了实力相当有限的丹麦球队哥本哈根足球俱乐部。它们的标价低于1.50，由最大、最敏锐的博彩公司和最大的投注限额赢得胜利。他们的确应该获胜，但最终比分仍然具有误导性。丹麦人有机会，他们应该至少进一次球。他们记录了令人尊敬的10次进球尝试——塞维利亚的次数更多——16次。看看进攻次数(109-89)和危险进攻次数(52-48)，我们可以看到塞维利亚只有一点优势。欧冠小组赛对塞维利亚来说是令人失望的，他们只赢了哥本哈根的比赛，总共积了5分，净胜球为6:12。他们将在欧联杯中继续他们的欧战。我也不认为他们会在这场比赛中获胜!

博彩市场认为东道主在这方面的胜算不大——至少在写这篇预告的时候是这样。我不同意，因为皇家社会在本赛季到目前为止的比赛中，明显在各个方面都做得更好!在我看来，他们有40%的机会带着三分回到巴斯克地区。然而，我的粉丝们，即使在平局的情况下，我也会赢得推荐的赌注。事实上，在这个联赛中连赢八次的机会是很高的!客队目前已经拿到23分，排名第七。然而，我认为他们是联盟中排名第四的球队。他们有几名球员缺席，这影响了他们在这场比赛中的机会。不过，博彩市场似乎过于重视这些缺席者了。塞维利亚缺少球员的情况也不是最理想的。他们在中卫的伤病问题还在继续，夏天签下的唐吉·年祖可能还有马卡奥(大腿受伤)仍然无法上场。巴西后腰费尔南多一直在生病，预计也将缺阵。蒙蒂尔也将因为红牌缺席比赛。客队仍然没有奥亚尔扎巴尔和奥马尔·萨迪克，两人都因十字韧带撕裂缺阵，而穆罕默德-阿里·周(大腿)、艾汉·穆尼奥兹(大腿)和安德尔·巴雷内特(肌肉)也将缺阵。此外，埃卢斯顿多因为上周末的红牌将被停赛。

就XPTS而言，皇家社会应该得到25分。我希望他们在这里有很强的防守能力，通过快速反击来利用塞维利亚的防守弱点。这是他们非常擅长的事情!他们在欧联杯E组中也表现出色，曼联就是其中之一。皇家社会在6场比赛中得到15分，打进10球，只丢了2球!他们的防守在六场比赛中都非常稳固，组织良好。他们甚至在老特拉福德1-0击败了曼联，他们的出色表现让马努的进攻球员和主场球迷感到沮丧。虽然他们在小组赛最后一阶段0-1输给了曼联，但他们至少应该获得一场平局。得分次数(14比4)和射门次数(4比1)都要多。我们必须记住，他们在这场比赛中也失去了很多球员，一球之差的失利足以确保小组第一的位置。在最近的一场对阵瓦伦西亚的比赛中，他们并没有发挥出最好的状态，而瓦伦西亚是一支危险的球队，双方1-1战平。然而，瓦伦西亚在这场比赛中超出了他们的正常水平。尽管如此，东道主在比赛第17分钟被罚下后的大部分时间里都是10人应战，但他们的预期进球数还是比预期进球数高得多——1.47:0.83。他们表现出了伟大的战斗精神!