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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A GREAT match to bet on!

2022-11-08

比赛分析

解读理由

Reggina VS Genoa


Reggina Genoa Italian Serie B round 12 battle at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Reggio Calabriaearly Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is of mediocre level by European standards and only the top teams locking horns usually offers quality entertainment for football fans to watch. I have, however, once again spotted an interesting betting opportunity in this league! The biggest, sharpest bookmakers estimate that the visitors are the favorites here. I cannot agree with this view at all! Genoa were relegated to this legaue from Serie A for this season but I do not expect and easy season for them. They played a very bad season in Serie A grabbing just 28 points and had an abysmal score difference of 27:60. According to my sources they also do not have a good team spirit. With the hosts the situation is the opposite and they also have a very good manager! The hosts are slim favorites here and with the recommended bet on the hosts with the +0.5 goals handicap me fans and I have have a 66% chance of winning in this match where a draw would not surprise anyone. The goals expectancy is low – only 2.01 goals. Both teams have a solid defense and I expect Genoa to be pretty cautious here away from home against Reggina who can be very dangerous on the counter attacks.

Genoa are the more well-known brand and are the bigger team by financial resources of course. However, their squad is surely not worth the 60.55 million euros listed on a respected and well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com. At least five players are over-valued – three of them by a large margin! This most be one of the reason behind the over-valuation on the betting market here.Their key players are undoubtedly also more skilled individually though but as a team they are only marginally better in my opinion. They have taken 22 points so far and are in 2nd place in the standings with a goal difference of 14:8. However, in terms of expected points they would have deserved just 19 points. Reggina have 19 points to their account and a better goal difference! They would have deserved 21 or 22 points. They have not won for a while but have been unlucky inn these three games.The bookies should respect them much more in front of loud fans that make them the favorites here!

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