Audax Italiano VS Deportes La Serena

Audax Italiano welcome La Serena for this Chilean Primera Division battle at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida in Santiago de Chile. This is the last round of play. Primera Division is of relatively low level by global standards and much worse than for example the Brazilian Serie A or Argentinian Liga Profesional. The stakes are high here and we have reason to expect a good, intense match by Chilean standards. The hosts currently occupy the 9th place with 42 points to their account. Their score difference is much better than the visitors' – 41:42. The season has been disappointing for them so far as last season they finished in 3rd place with 39 points. The visitors, on the other hand, finished in 10th place last season after grabbing a total of 39 points. This season has been very difficult indeed for La Serena. They are in 14th place on this leagxe with a total of 16 teams. Two of the worst teams are relegated to Primera B for next season. Antofagasta, in 15th place, are just one point behind the visitors. The biggest problem for La Serena had been the unbelievably leaky defense. The have scored a decent number of goals – 28 – but have conceded a whopping 53 goals. This is clearly the biggest number in this league. Their defense lacks basically everything – structure, speed and individual skill. I would be very surprised if they were able stop the hosts attackers here.

The host will qualify for the Copa Sudamericana qualification with a win and have a very high chance of succeeding in this! Their are much better also offensively than the poor visitors. The home advantage is substantial here even though the hosts' record at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida is not too great.. The fans know how important the game is and will surely offer a massive boost to the hosts. The visitors have been awful on the road losing seven of their latest 10 matches on the road and taking all three points just once in these 10 games. In terms of expected points (xPTS) the hosts would have deserved 46 points – the visitors number of xPTS is just 22 points. This probably in part explains the too big odds offered on the hosts. Furthermore, I must admit that La Serena were surprisingly good in their most recent match beating Union La Calera 2-1 at home but played above their normal level in this match.. The betting market seems to put too much emphasis on this win.. Before this they lost three games in a row. The hosts have not done too well results-wise recently but their potential is so big that I would not be too worried against an opponent as weak as La Serena! The hosts will surely put massive pressure right from the kickoff aiming to score a quick opening goal. 3-1 if i would have to pick a score!