In my opinion Salzburg is able to make this game really competitive, their chances are bigger than bookies wants to suggest for us in odds. +1.5 AH on away side looks like great bet.

First match between both teams finished with draw 1:1, but Salzburg played better: expected goals scored for Salzburg 1.32, for Milan 0.88.

For Milan draw in this game is good enough to finish on second place, on the other hand Salzburg have to win - for sure they will come with very aggressive and offensive approach. They don't have problems with goalscoring as they scored at least one goal in 27 of last 28 matches in all competitions. Salzburg failed to score at home in league match against Sturm, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 1.27. They were able to score in both matches against Chelsea, so why not today?

Milan is still without their first goalkeeper Maignan and two defenders Calabria and Florenzi. Currently they don't have stability at the back - they conceded at least one goal in 9 of last 11 matches in all competitions. Milan kept clean sheet against Juventus (0.77 expected goals conceded) and against Dinamo (0.72 expected goals conceded). At the weekend they lost against Torino and conceded two goals in the process, for sure defensive formation not coming here full of confidence.

I believe Salzburg is able to score and that should be enough to cover this high HC line.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，萨尔茨堡有能力让这场比赛变得真正有竞争力，他们的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大。客场+1.5 AH看起来是个不错的赌注。

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两队首场比赛以1:1战平，但萨尔茨堡表现更好:萨尔茨堡的预期进球数为1.32，米兰为0.88。

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对于米兰来说，这场比赛的平局足以让他们以第二名的位置结束比赛，另一方面，萨尔茨堡必须赢得比赛——他们肯定会以非常积极的进攻方式到来。他们在进球方面没有问题，因为他们在最近28场比赛中至少打进了一个球。萨尔茨堡在与斯图姆的联赛中没有在主场进球，但根据预期进球数模型，他们应该进1.27球。他们在对阵切尔西的两场比赛中都能进球，为什么今天不能呢?

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米兰仍然没有他们的第一门将麦尼安和两名后卫卡拉布里亚和弗洛伦齐。目前他们的后防线并不稳定——在过去的11场比赛中，他们至少丢了9球。米兰在对阵尤文图斯(预期失球0.77个)和对阵迪纳摩(预期失球0.72个)时保持零封。周末他们输给了都灵，并在这个过程中丢了两个球，毫无疑问，他们的防守阵型并没有满怀信心来到这里。

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我相信萨尔茨堡有能力得分，这应该足够覆盖这条高中线。