Midtjylland VS Odense BK

Midjylland welcome Odense at MCH Arena in Herning for this Danish Superliga early Tuesday Beijing time. This league is of mediocre level by European standards and offers decent entertainment for football fans to watch. We have done well betting on this league and I have spotted a lucrative betting opportunity here. I do not often recommend a bet on the favorite at somewhat low odds my here I see the hosts as very clear favorites. They have an edge over the visitors in all areas of the game. The biggest difference is in offense - most specifically in offensive structure and in attackers' and midfielders' individual skill level. The standings are a very misleading at the moment.The host currently occupy the 6th place with 21 points to their account. Their goal difference is 23:20. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 24 points. Moreover, in terms of expected goals (xG)the number they would have deserved is 26. I see the hosts having potential to play a lot better both offensively and defensively. I think their midfielders should take part more actively in defending. I rate them as the 2nd best team in this league in my power ratings that illustrate the teams' pure class. Last season they finished in the same second place in the Championship Group with respectable 65 points in the pocket.

As for the visitors the situation in terms of xPTS and xG is the opposite: They have have they have grabbed three more points and scored four more than they would have deserved! This seems to have led to over-valuation on the betting market. They are currently in the 9th place in the league table but I only rate them as the 10th best team in Superliga. Last season they ended up in the 8th place in the Relegation Group with a total of 38 points. They wont their latest game but it is a good example of undeserved points. Indeed, they beat Lyngby 3-1 at home as favorites on the betting market – oriced around 2.15 to win by the biggest, sharpest bookies. Lyngby did, however, have 55% ball possession and also recorded much more goal attempts (21-9),shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they managed to take a point away from home against Viborg through a goalless draw despite being cleary the worse team. They only recorded two shots on target – the hosts' number was six. I would not be surprised of they failed to score here against the much better hosts