Real Madrid VS Girona

Real Madrid host Girona for this Spanish LaLiga round 12 battle at Estadio Estadio Santiago Bernabéu Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the second-best league on the planet after English Premier League. It is very easy for anyone who follows sports to say that Real are very clear favorites here! However, my point here is that they are smaller favorites than the betting market and probably most football fans and journalists think.. After my usual in-depth analysis the hosts have a 72% chance of winning this. The bookies, on the other hand, estimate Real Madrid having an approximately 78% chance to take all three points. I do rate them as the best team in this league in my power rating that illustrates the teams' pure class. The gap to Barcelona is certainly quite small though.. We must not forget that Real have taken seven more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS)! That is indeed a massive number after 11 matches! It is very clear that they have not been as good as the LaLiga table suggests winning the championship and lifting the Champions League trophy last year surely affect the odds here as well.. The +2.5 goals' handicap is massive here and Girona have on over 70% chance to avoid losing by more than two goals' difference bringing us yet another winner betting on LaLiga. Real have covered the -2.5 goals' handicap just once in their most recent 10 matches. This happened on the 19th of this month away from home against Elche, a weak team.

Let's take a look at Girona, a pretty small by financial resources - and unknown to many football fans - team: Indeed, Girona, have not lost any of their latest 15 games by more than two goals! They are currently in the 19th place in this league with a total of 20 teams and have nine points to their account. I will not let the standings fool me though! Their goal difference is not bad at all - 15:19. In terms of expected points they would have deserved 15 or 16 points! The bookies really should respect Girona more here. They were promoted from LaLiga2 for this season and definitely have the players to avoid relegation but it will surely be tough battle for them.I rate them as the 17th-best team in this league. I want to mention that their defense has looked more solid than I would have thought ahead of this season. It has a good structure and Girona's players fight very hard. According to my sources they also have a great team spirit. In their most recent match they faced a pretty good team Osasuna at home and it was a 1-1 draw at home after a very balanced match. They unarguably lacked some offensive creativity though and recorded just one shot on the visitors' goal. Osasuna, however, also recorded just two shots on target and both teams failed to create much in expected goals. I expect them to be very defensive at Santiago Bernabéu against a superior opponent. I see this match as more low-scoring than the bookies do - especially as the Ballon d'Or winner Karim Benzema is out because of a muscle injury. Furthermore, Real were not too convincing on Tuesday in Germany. Leipzig beat them 3-2 in Champions League round 5 match. Two weeks ago in El Clasico in Madrid Real Madrid beat Barcelona 3-1 at home which of course looks good.. Barca were underdogs in this match on the betting market and were not even close to their best , especially during the first 30-35 minutes of the game. Even so, visitors recorded more than the hosts in expected goals(xG) 1.81-1.57. Barcelona also had 57% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks than Real.

北京时间周日晚上，皇家马德里将在圣地亚哥伯纳乌球场举行的西班牙西甲第 12 轮比赛中主场迎战赫罗纳。这是继英超联赛之后地球上第二好的联赛。任何关注体育运动的人都可以很容易地说，皇马是这里的最爱！然而，我的观点是，他们比博彩市场更受欢迎，可能大多数足球迷和记者都认为.. 在我通常的深入分析之后，东道主有 72% 的机会赢得这场比赛。另一方面，博彩公司估计皇马全取三分的几率约为 78%。在我的实力评级中，我确实将他们评为联盟中最好的球队，这说明了球队的纯粹水平。不过，与巴塞罗那的差距确实很小。我们不能忘记，皇马在预期得分（xPTS）方面比他们应得的多拿了 7 分！在11场比赛之后，这确实是一个巨大的数字！很明显，他们没有和西甲积分榜一样好，去年赢得冠军和举起冠军联赛奖杯肯定也会影响这里的赔率。+2.5 球的让分在这里很大，赫罗纳有超过 70% 的机会避免输球更多两球之差让我们又一次押注西甲。皇马在最近的 10 场比赛中只有一次弥补了 -2.5 球的让分。这发生在本月19日客场对阵弱队埃尔切的比赛中。

让我们来看看赫罗纳，这支财务资源相当小的球队——许多球迷都不知道——球队：事实上，赫罗纳在最近的 15 场比赛中输掉的任何一场比赛都没有超过两个进球！他们目前在这个联赛中排名第 19 位，共有 20 支球队，他们的账户中有 9 分。我不会让排名欺骗我！他们的净胜球一点也不差——15:19。就预期分数而言，他们应该得到 15 或 16 分！博彩公司真的在这里应该更加尊重赫罗纳。他们本赛季从LaLiga2升级，肯定有球员可以保级，但这对他们来说肯定是一场艰苦的战斗。我将他们评为联盟第17位的球队。我想提一下，他们的防守看起来比我在本赛季之前想象的要稳固。它具有良好的结构，赫罗纳的球员非常努力。根据我的消息来源，他们也有很强的团队精神。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场迎战了一支相当不错的球队奥萨苏纳，在一场非常平衡的比赛之后，他们在主场以 1-1 战平。毫无疑问，他们缺乏一些进攻创造力，只在客队的球门上打了一球。然而，奥萨苏纳也只记录了两次射门，两支球队都未能创造出太多的预期进球。我希望他们在圣地亚哥·伯纳乌（Santiago Bernabéu）对抗一个更强大的对手时会非常防守。我认为这场比赛比博彩公司得分更低——尤其是金球奖得主卡里姆本泽马因肌肉受伤缺阵。此外，皇马周二在德国的表现也不太令人信服。莱比锡在欧冠第5轮比赛中以3-2击败了他们。两周前在马德里的国家德比中，皇家马德里在主场以 3-1 击败了巴塞罗那，这当然看起来不错。. 巴萨在这场比赛中的投注市场上处于劣势，甚至还没有接近最佳状态，尤其是在前 30-35 场比赛中分钟的比赛。即便如此，客队的预期进球数（xG）1.81-1.57 仍高于东道主。巴塞罗那也有 57% 的控球率，并且比皇马记录了更多的进球尝试、射门、传球、完成的传球、进攻和危险进攻。