Can’t see hosts favorites here.

They are still at the top of the Bundesliga, but Union Berlin is the most overrated team in the league in case of offense. They have 10.20 expected goals (xG) in 11 games in the Bundesliga. They scored a lot of impossible goals or goals by opposites big mistakes or stunners by Sheraldo Becker (6 goals but just 1,51 expected goals - xG). In the Europe League just twice in 4 games.

On the other hand, they are defensively very good, so this should be a tight game.

Union Berlin is a team who likes to park the bus and play defensively. They have big problems to have possession and to create chances. The best examples are the games against Malmö, Bochum, Chemnitz when they were favorites. There we already have seen they were not able to create chances because it is absolutely not their style of game. But here today they need a victory if they want 2nd place. Braga on the other side just needs a draw here to qualify as 2nd in the group.

They are coming from an awful defeat in the league against the bottom of the league - Bochum (2:1) so surely their morale will be affected.

Fischer, manager of Berlin, already said they are very tired playing 2 games a week. In my opinion they are not able to rotate their best players. So no freshness should be a factor again.

On the other hand, Braga is having a fantastic season. Sitting 3rd in the Portuguese league, with the same points as Porto (2nd). They broke their bad run (4 games winless) with two victories in a row this week.

They have some players in great form, like the young striker Vitinha who already scored 4 goals in the Europa League.

So I can't see Union Berlin as big favorites here as odds shows. This will be a tight and close match, without too many chances and goals. Guests are in better form and have at least a similar squad (if not better). Furthermore, Braga can “play” with the result, because a draw is also enough for them. Union Berlin needs a victory if they want to achieve 2nd place and sooner or later will have to change their style, playing offensively. This would be a great chance for Braga to kill them in counter attacks.

Guests are also better form physically, so the double chance looks like a very interesting pick here.

Braga already won 1:0 (and deservedly) the previous game against Union Berlin.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

他们仍然在德甲排名第一，但柏林联盟在进攻方面是联赛中最被高估的球队。他们在德甲11场比赛中有10.20个预期进球(xG)。他们打进了很多不可能的进球，或者是对手的重大失误，或者是谢拉尔多·贝克尔的惊人进球(6球但只有1,51个预期进球- xG)。在欧洲联赛，4场比赛只进过2次球。

另一方面，他们的防守非常好，所以这应该是一场势均力敌的比赛。

柏林联盟是一支喜欢停车防守的球队。他们在控球和创造机会方面有很大的问题。最好的例子是对阵Malmö、波鸿、开姆尼茨的比赛，当时他们是最受欢迎的球队。我们已经看到他们不能创造机会，因为这绝对不是他们的比赛风格。但是今天，如果他们想要第二名，他们需要一场胜利。另一边的布拉加只需要一场平局就能以小组第二的身份出线。

他们刚刚在联赛中惨败于垫底的波鸿(2:1)，所以他们的士气肯定会受到影响。

柏林主帅费舍尔已经说过，他们一周踢两场比赛已经很累了。在我看来，他们不能轮换最好的球员。所以不应该再考虑新鲜度了。

另一方面，布拉加正在经历一个梦幻般的赛季。在葡萄牙联赛中排名第三，与排名第二的波尔图积分相同。本周他们以两连胜打破了糟糕的战绩(4场未胜)。

他们有一些状态不错的球员，比如已经在欧联杯打进4球的年轻前锋维提尼亚。

所以我不认为柏林联盟会像赔率显示的那样大受欢迎。这将是一场势均力敌的比赛，没有太多的机会和进球。客人的状态更好，至少有一个相似的阵容(如果不是更好的话)。此外，布拉加可以“玩”这个结果，因为平局对他们来说也足够了。柏林联盟需要一场胜利，如果他们想获得第二名，迟早会改变他们的风格，进攻。这将是布拉加在反击中杀死他们的绝佳机会。

客人的身体状况也更好，所以双倍的机会看起来是一个非常有趣的选择。

布拉加在上一场对阵柏林联盟的比赛中已经以1:0获胜(这是理所应当的)。