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2022-10-26

比赛分析

NBA

已完赛

星期四2022-10-27 07:00

解读理由

Two different levels of teams are meeting in Cleveland tonight as the Cavaliers will host the Orlando Magic. The host has started the season pretty well with 2 wins and 1 loss that came only in the last minutes against Toronto Raptors while the Magic has 4 straight losses. In the last game, Cleveland won in overtime against the well-performed Washington Wizards but Orlando started the mini 2-game road trip with a loss against New York Knicks.

Darius Garland is still going to be out for Cleveland but Donovan Mitchell is taking care of the ball as he averages 33.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are doing what they are supposed to do although both could perform a little bit better but very helpful option has been Cedi Osman who scores 16 points per game although he starts games from the bench.

The Magic has the 1st overall pick Paolo Banchero, as well as such fine talents as Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony and others. But what has been the problem? Orlando is missing a true point guard because Markelle Fultz is out but he could be back at the start of November and Jalen Suggs came back from an injury but got injured again. Wagner is underperforming and that could be because of Banchero and maybe some fatigue issues from Eurobasket.

The 2nd thing is that Orlando isn't the best team on both ends of the floor. In the offensive rating, the Magic is 7th worst with 107.5. Problems are in defense too because they are 8th worst with 114.9. Both stats can't be compared with the Cavaliers as they are 5th best in offense (116.7) and 4th best in defense (104.4). If we look at just points scored and allowed per game, the advantage goes to Cleveland - 116.7 points (11th best) against 107.3 (26th best) and 103.7 allowed points (2nd best) against 115.5 (20th best).

Although it's a small sample size, we can watch how teams have performed against the spread. Cleveland has won 2 out of 3 games against the spread while Orlando has lost 3 out of 4. For this matchup, I'm confident with the Cavaliers covering the handicap as they are just a better team in all areas and the Magic is struggling right now but competing for the playoffs is not on their plans so it isn't anything bad that they are on a long losing streak already.


骑士队将主场迎战奥兰多魔术队,两支不同级别的球队今晚将在克利夫兰开会。东道主本赛季开局不错,2胜1负仅在最后几分钟对阵多伦多猛龙队,而魔术队则连续4场失利。上一场比赛,克利夫兰在加时战胜了表现出色的华盛顿奇才队,但奥兰多队以输给纽约尼克斯队开始了迷你2场客场之旅。 大流士加兰仍然会为克利夫兰出战,但多诺万米切尔正在照顾球,他场均得到 33.3 分、5.3 个篮板和 7.0 次助攻。 Jarrett Allen 和 Evan Mobley 正在做他们应该做的事情,尽管他们都可以表现得更好,但非常有用的选择是 Cedi Osman,尽管他从替补席上开始比赛,但他场均得到 16 分。

魔术队拥有状元秀Paolo Banchero,以及Franz Wagner、Wendell Carter Jr.、Cole Anthony等优秀人才。但是有什么有问题吗?奥兰多缺少一名真正的控球后卫,因为马克尔·富尔茨出局了,但他可能会在 11 月初回来,而贾伦·萨格斯伤愈复出,但又受伤了。瓦格纳表现不佳,这可能是因为疲劳问题。

第二件事是奥兰多不是攻防两端最好的球队。在进攻效率方面,魔术队以 107.5 排名倒数第 7。防守方面也有问题,因为他们以 114.9 排名第 8。这两项数据都无法与骑士队相比,因为他们在进攻方面排名第五(116.7),在防守方面排名第四(104.4)。如果我们只看每场比赛的得分和允许得分,克利夫兰的优势在于 116.7 分(第 11 佳)对 107.3 分(第 26 佳)和 103.7 分(第 2 佳)对 115.5 分(第 20 佳)。

尽管样本量很小,但我们可以观察团队在对抗扩散方面的表现。克利夫兰在对抗传播的 3 场比赛中赢了 2 场,而奥兰多已经输掉了 4 场比赛中的 3 场。对于这场比赛,我对骑士队弥补让分充满信心,因为他们在所有方面都是一支更好的球队,而魔术队现在正在苦苦挣扎,但争夺季后赛并不是他们的计划,所以他们已经处于长期的连败状态并不是什么坏事。

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