In my opinion Southampton have bigger chances than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds. +1.5 AH looks like very safe bet. I don't see big win for Arsenal today.

Southampton have really solid record against Arsenal with +1.5 AH as they didn't lost with more than one goal margin in 7 of last 11 matches against them. Last match between both teams at this stadium in April finished with Southampton 1:0 win.

Without any shadow of doubt freshness is on Southampton side - for them is only fourth match in 15 days. In addition to that their form raised in last days as they didn't lost at home against West Ham and recorded away win against Bournemouth. In current season Southampton didn't lost with more than one goal in all 5 home matches.

On the other hand is already sixth match for Arsenal in last 17 days. Manager Mikel Arteta not make big rotation so players for sure don't have real freshness. They already not looked convincing in last away match against Leeds. They won that game 1:0, but that wasn't deserved result at all: expected goals scored for Leeds 1.86, for Arsenal 0.55. I see continuation of that today. Arsenal have a lot of quality, no doubts about that, but for them the most important things is 3 points. That is very visible in last matches: three consecutive wins with the same scoreline 1:0. I can imagine another low scoring win today.

Those lines are simply too high and I'm happy to go with Southampton+1.5 against tired Arsenal.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，南安普顿的机会很多。我认为阿森纳今天不会有大的胜利。

南安普顿在对阵阿森纳的比赛中有着稳定的记录，净胜球为+1.5，因为他们在过去11场对阵阿森纳的比赛中有7场没有输掉超过1球的比分。两队在今年4月的最后一场比赛中，南安普顿以1:0获胜。

毫无疑问，南安普顿现在的状态很新鲜——对他们来说，这是15天来的第四场比赛。此外，他们的状态在最近几天有所提升，因为他们没有在主场输给西汉姆联，而且在客场赢了伯恩茅斯。本赛季南安普顿在5场主场比赛中没有输过1球以上。

另一方面，这已经是阿森纳在过去17天里的第六场比赛了。主教练米克尔·阿尔特塔没有大的轮换，所以球员肯定没有真正的新鲜感。在上一场客场对阵利兹联的比赛中，他们的表现并不令人信服。他们以1:0赢得了那场比赛，但这根本不是一个值得的结果:利兹联的预期进球数是1.86，阿森纳是0.55。我今天看到了这种情况的延续。阿森纳有很多实力，这一点毋庸置疑，但对他们来说最重要的是3分。这一点在最近的比赛中非常明显:以1:0的比分取得三连胜。我可以想象今天又一个低分的胜利。