Disagree with this odds.

This is a must win for Barcelona after a very hard week, with defeats against Inter (which meant that they are already without chances to qualify to Champions League ⅛ finals) and Madri in El Clasico.

They have shown a poor level lately, and can't see winning easily here. Against small teams they can play slow football, dominate the games and create chances. But against top teams with high pace they can’t simply control the game and stop the counters, because Busquets (who will be starter today) can’t follow that rhythm so Pedri and Gavi are alone in the midfield to do it.

Furthermore, in defense they are struggling a lot without Araujo (best CB) because Eric Garcia is always making some big mistakes.

Even against weak teams like Celta or Mallorca, they won just by 1 goal difference. Cellta (1:0) had chances to score and even deserved the draw, while Mallorca (0:1) was a very boring and controlled game without chances.

On the other hand, Villarreal is a very competitive team with quality and a great coach, totally able to take some point here. Last season Villarreal won 0:2 in Camp Nou and lost 1:3 at home conceding goals at 88' and 94' (penalty). Against big/top teams is where Villarreal use to show their best level. For example this season they already won 0:2 against Atletico Madrid.

They are already qualified to the next stage of the Conference League so can be 100% focused in La Liga, where they are among the main favorites to get the 4th position (Champions League). Right now are 6th 5 points below (7 points below direct rival - Real Sociedad), so need points here.

We can’t forget also that they have the best defense of the league - just 3 goals conceded in 9 games. And this isn’t luck. The team is not receiving chances because they defend very well, closing all spaces even when they are dominated (like they will be today).

Villarreal asian handicap +1 is a very interesting pick here. They have not lost a game by 2 goals since Liverpool last season in Anfield (UCL ¼ finals). Furthermore, in the whole year 2022 only Levante managed to beat them by 2 goals - a very unlucky game where Villarreal lost 2:0 and conceded the 2nd goal at 92’ in the last action of the game. This is a clear signal of how difficult is Villarreal to beat, especially by more than 1 goal.

Barcelona is favorite that’s right, but I dont see them in the best moment now and can’t see an easy game for them here. Their morale is too low, several players are in bad form, and I think that Villarreal can kill them with counters as they are a great counter attacking team and this is Barcelona’s weak point. Xavi’s team isn’t in a good moment and Villarreal is showing an amazing level. Guests have quality enough to avoid the defeat here or at least, avoid being destroyed by 2 or more goals.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

这对巴萨来说是一场必须的胜利，在经历了非常艰难的一周之后，他们输给了国米(这意味着他们已经没有机会进入欧冠八分之一决赛)和马德里国家德比。

他们最近表现得很差，在这里不可能轻易取胜。面对小球队时，他们可以踢慢节奏的足球，控制比赛并创造机会。但面对节奏快的顶级球队，他们不能简单地控制比赛和阻止反击，因为布斯克茨(他将是今天的首发)不能遵循这种节奏，所以佩德里和加维在中场独自做这件事。

此外，在没有阿劳霍(最好的中后卫)的情况下，他们在防守方面也很挣扎，因为埃里克·加西亚总是犯一些大错误。

即使面对塞尔塔或马洛卡这样的弱队，他们也只以1个净胜球的优势取胜。塞尔塔(1:0)有机会得分，甚至值得平局，而马洛卡(0:1)是一场非常无聊和控制没有机会的比赛。

另一方面，比利亚雷亚尔是一支非常有竞争力的球队，有质量和一个伟大的教练，完全有能力在这里取得一些成绩。上赛季比利亚雷亚尔在诺坎普0:2取胜，在主场88分钟和94分钟丢球1:3失利(点球)。对阵强队是比利亚雷亚尔展示他们最好水平的地方。例如，本赛季他们已经0:2战胜了马德里竞技。

他们已经获得了进入下一阶段联赛的资格，因此可以100%专注于西甲，他们是西甲第4名的主要热门之一(冠军联赛)。现在我们排在第6位，比直接竞争对手皇家社会低5分(比皇家社会低7分)，所以我们需要积分。

我们也不能忘记他们拥有联赛中最好的防守——9场比赛只丢3球。这不是运气。球队没有得到机会，因为他们防守得很好，即使在他们被控制的情况下(就像他们今天一样)也会关闭所有的空间。

比利亚雷亚尔亚洲障碍+1是一个非常有趣的选择。自从上赛季利物浦在安菲尔德(UCL 1 / 4决赛)之后，他们还没有输过一场2球的比赛。此外，在整个2022年里，只有莱万特以2球的优势击败了他们——这是一场非常不幸的比赛，比利亚雷亚尔0比2输掉了比赛，并在92分的最后一场比赛中丢了第二个球。这是一个明确的信号，要击败比利亚雷亚尔是多么困难，尤其是超过1球。

巴萨是最受欢迎的球队，这是对的，但我没有看到他们在最好的时刻，也没有看到他们在这里轻松的比赛。他们的士气太低了，一些球员状态不好，我认为比利亚雷亚尔可以用反击杀死他们，因为他们是一支伟大的反击球队，这是巴萨的弱点。哈维的球队状态不佳，比利亚雷亚尔表现出了惊人的水平。客人有足够的质量在这里避免失败或至少，最多输一个球。