In my opinion Villarreal have really good chances to avoid big loss in today's match up. +1.5 AH looks like the best possible bet here.

I believe guests coming for this game without any fear - in last match between both teams at Camp Nou in May they were able to win 2:0. What worked in that game? Villarreal was very stable at the back and showed deadly finish in attack. I can imagine similar scenario today.

Villarreal is in very good form - if You look on big picture together with pre-season friendly matches - they didn't lost in 21 of last 23 matches! Only two 0:1 losses on away against good teams like Betis and Sociedad. Defensive formation have a lot of consistency and stability - they were able to keep clean sheet in 4 of last 5 matches and they conceded only 3 goals so far (the best result in La Liga). Goalkeeper Rulli is in hot form - 6 clean sheets in 9 matches. Villarreal looked creative on the road in La Liga so far - they scored 5 goals in 6 away matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 9.88. It's huge difference at this stage of the season.

I still not trust for Barcelona, they are not 'big match' team with Xavi on the bench, they are not like Real Madrid or so. Only one win in 6 Champions League matches (against Plzen)? It's not achievement for top class team. Atmosphere is very bad at the moment. Barcelona coming here after painful loss in El Classico against Real (1:3). They recorded only one win in last 4 matches in all competitions - 1:0 against Celta at home, but even in that game they not deserved for 3 points (Celta had 1.57 expected goals scored). Lewandowski is their the best player, no doubts about that, but Villarreal central defenders duo Albiol- Torres should know how to stop him. Barcelona not conceded a single goal at home so far in La Liga, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 3.43. This luck can't last forever.

Villarreal have all required tools to score at least one goal and not concede more than 2. +1.5 looks like safe and really logical bet here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，比利亚雷亚尔在今天的比赛中有很好的机会避免大的损失。

我相信来观看这场比赛的客人没有任何恐惧——两队在5月诺坎普的最后一场比赛中，他们以2:0获胜。这款游戏的成功之处是什么?比利亚雷亚尔的后防线非常稳定，在进攻中展现了致命的终结。今天我可以想象类似的场景。

比利亚雷亚尔状态非常好——如果你从大的角度看季前赛友谊赛——他们在过去23场比赛中有21场没有输!只有两场客场0:1输给了像贝蒂斯和社会这样的强队。防守阵型非常稳定——他们在最近5场比赛中有4场没有失球，到目前为止他们只丢了3球(这是西甲最好的成绩)。门将鲁利状态火热，9场比赛6场零封。到目前为止，比利亚雷亚尔在西甲的客场比赛中看起来很有创造力——他们在6场客场比赛中打进5球，但根据预期进球数模型，他们应该打进9.88球。在赛季的这个阶段，情况有很大的不同。

我仍然不相信巴萨，他们不是“重要比赛”的球队，哈维坐在替补席上，他们不像皇马之类的。在6场欧冠比赛中只有一场胜利(对阵Plzen)?这不是顶级团队的成就。现在的气氛很糟糕。巴萨在西班牙甲级联赛1:3输给皇马后来到这里。他们在最近4场比赛中只取得了一场胜利——主场1:0战胜塞尔塔，但即使在那场比赛中，他们也配不上3分(塞尔塔的预期进球数为1.57)。莱万多夫斯基是他们最好的球员，这是毫无疑问的，但是比利亚雷亚尔的中卫组合阿尔比奥-托雷斯应该知道如何阻止他。到目前为止，巴塞罗那在西甲的主场没有丢过一个球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢3.43球。这种幸运不会永远持续下去。

比利亚雷亚尔需要所有的工具，以打进至少一个球，不失球超过2个。