Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors

Newells Old Boys welcome Boca Juniors for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 26 clash at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa in Rosario. This league is of decent level by global standards and importantly betting-wise a low-scoring league similarly to many other South American leagues, for example Brazilian Serie B and Colombian Primera A. The sharpest and biggest bookies with the highest betting limits estimate the goal expectancy at only 1.86 - low number even by Liga Profesional standards. I expect a pretty good quality much here by Argentinian standards but it will probably be a tactical, somewhat defensive match and even a 0-0 would not surprise anyone. Indeed, Boca Juniors, one of the two biggest teams in Argentina by historical success, fan-base and financial roseurces, often play even cautious football away from – especially agaimst top 10 teams. They currently top the standings in this very balanced league at the top of the table. Huracan, in 5th place, have just five points less than Boca. In my view Boca are definitely not the best team in this league and are clearly over-rated here! Their goal difference is not particularly good 30:23. In fact, even Gimnasia La Plata in 7th place have a better score difference.

The visitors have unarguably improved lately but have been lucky in many of the matches they have been victorious in. In their most recent match they faced Sarmiento Junin away from home as clear favorites and did win 1-0 after a pretty balanced match. Let’s remember that this pretty small team is only in the 18th place in the standings at the moment. Boca did have 56% ball possession, but only recorded one mores hosts on goal than the hosts who even recorded much more dangerous attacks. It was a disappointing performance as a whole. Before this they beat the rock-bottom team Aldosovi 2-1 at home after a lame performance. They were the better team but did not perform at a level everyone expected - they were priced around 1.35 to win by the bookies. Their offense lacked creativity and speed. They can improve but I even that might not be enoguh to beat the hosts who are much better than the table would reflect. They would have deserved a win in their most recent match after close to 70% ball possession and creating a whopping 22 goal attempts. They also recorded much more shots on goal -13. Tigre, a strong team and clear favorites according to the bookies, had just three.The advantage in dangerous attacks was also huge in Newells Boys’ favor - 69-18! Boca will be without Figal, Rojo, Romero and Zeballos. The hosts will have to manage without Aguirre, Angel,Fernandez, Melano and Vangioni. With today’s expected lineups the hosts are slim favorites and with the +0.5 goals handicap we have a great chance of winning! Defensively they have even been better than Boca in many matches this season and also have loud home fans so I will not let the lames recent home record fool me here.