Valencia vs Elche

Valencia host Elche at Estadio de Mestalla for this LaLiga round 9 clash Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world after English Premier League.. I do not expect a particularly entertaining match here but there is a lucrative betting chance to extend our impressive winning streak of nine picks betting on LaLiga. We will go with the +1.5 goals handicap option on the visitors with a 65% chance of winning. Indeed, the bet would bring a profit even if Elche were to lose by one goal’s difference. There is, however, no doubt about the fact that Valencia are the better team here. They have and edge in all areas of the game. The hosts have a 60% chance of taking all three points here. However, the main rationale behind this pick is to oppose the over-valued on the betting market Valencia. I do admit that they have started the season pretty well, much better than I would have expected after completing my in-depth preseason analysis and I have, as a result raised their power rating that reflects the teams’ pure class. The young team do have some vulnerabilities and they will surely not be able to finish in the 7th place that they currently occupy! In fact, I only rate them only as the 13th-best team in this league by pure class!

I expect Valencia to allow much more goals than they have conceded so far - 8. In terms of expected goals allowed the correct number should be 10 or even 11. Elche are the rock-bottom team in this league with just two points but have been unlucky in terms of expected points and I trust them to improve as the season progresses. Let us not forget that last season they finished in 13th place just six points behind Valencia who exceeded expectations and grabbed the 9th place. The visitors have finally got rid of their pretty bad coach and started the post-Francisco era with a positive performance. They were forced to defend quite a lot and fought very hard as a united team. Mallorca were the better team, but the draw will surely boost the visitors’ morale ahead of this difficult game. moving forward, they would need to pass the ball faster and more accurately to score more goals - perhaps acquire a new striker too in when the transfer window opens too.. I believe improving their offensive level will take time and they will probably again defend hard here and would be happy with a draw. Valencia did not really impress me in their most recent match despite beating a pretty limited team, Osasuna, 2-1 away from home after a quite balanced match. They did record a little more than the hosts in expected goals though. I want to mention that Osasuna were certainly not at their best in this game. Players to watch include for example Valencia’s midfielder Andre Almeida who could feel the pressure on in a second consecutive LaLiga home game as his fellow two goal scorers from their previous home outing may not be available in this clash.. Lucas Boye, Elche’s only goal scorer from their last LaLiga away trip, also scored in his previous trip to Valencia. Let us hope the skilled Argentinian striker nets the ball today as well!

北京时间周六晚上，瓦伦西亚将在梅斯塔利亚体育场迎战埃尔切，参加这场西甲第 9 轮比赛。这是仅次于英超联赛的世界第二好的联赛。我不希望这里有一场特别有趣的比赛，但有一个有利可图的投注机会来延长我们在西甲投注的九个选秀权的令人印象深刻的连胜纪录。我们将为有 65% 获胜机会的访客选择 +1.5 目标让分选项。的确，即使埃尔切以一球之差输掉比赛，赌注也会带来利润。然而，毫无疑问瓦伦西亚是这里更好的球队。他们在比赛的所有领域都有优势。东道主有 60% 的机会在这里拿下所有三分。然而，这个选择背后的主要理由是反对在博彩市场上被高估的瓦伦西亚。我承认他们的赛季开局很好，比我完成深入的季前赛分析后的预期要好得多，因此我做到了提高了反映团队纯粹等级的功率等级。这支年轻的队伍确实有一些弱点，他们肯定无法在他们目前占据的第 7 名中完成！事实上，我只将他们评为实力第 13 的球队！

我预计瓦伦西亚的失球数将比他们迄今为止的失球数多得多——8 个。就预期失球数而言，正确的数字应该是 10 甚至 11 个。埃尔切是这个联赛中的垫底球队，只得到两分，但一直在预期积分方面很不幸，我相信他们会随着赛季的进行而提高。让我们不要忘记，上赛季他们排在第 13 位，仅落后瓦伦西亚 6 分，后者超出预期并获得第 9 位。客队终于摆脱了他们糟糕的教练，并以积极的表现开启了后弗朗西斯科时代。他们被迫进行了很多防守，并且作为一个团结的球队进行了非常艰苦的战斗。马洛卡是更好的球队，但平局肯定会在这场艰难的比赛之前提振客队的士气。向前推进，他们需要更快、更准确地传球才能打进更多的球——也许在转会窗口打开时也能获得一名新的前锋。我相信提高他们的进攻水平需要时间，他们可能会再次努力防守在这里，平局会很高兴。瓦伦西亚在他们最近的一场比赛中并没有给我留下深刻的印象，尽管在一场相当平衡的比赛后客场以 2-1 击败了一支相当有限的球队奥萨苏纳。不过，他们的预期进球数确实比东道主多一点。我想提一下，奥萨苏纳在这场比赛中肯定不是处于最佳状态。值得关注的球员包括瓦伦西亚的中场球员安德烈·阿尔梅达（Andre Almeida），他可能会在连续第二场西甲主场比赛中感受到压力，因为在这场冲突中，他的前一场主场比赛的两个进球者可能无法上场。卢卡斯·博耶，埃尔切唯一的进球者从他们最后的西甲客场这次旅行，也是在他之前的瓦伦西亚之行中打进的。我预计这位技术娴熟的阿根廷前锋今天也能进球！