Stuttgart VS VfL Bochum

Stuttgart host Bochum for this German Bundesliga round 10 battle at Mercedes-Benz Arena Saturday night Beijing time. This is the third-best league in the world after English Premier League and Spanish LaLiga. The Bundesliga is more high scoring on average than many other top European Leagues and most matches are entertaining to watch as almost all teams aim at playing aggressive, offensive football. This is the case here as well, I believe, despite neither team being a top 12 team. Indeed, Bochum are currently the rock-bottom team in this league with a total 18 clubs. The have taken just four points and have an abysmal 8:23! Indeed, their defenders and most midfielders simply seem to lack the skills to play at this level. Their defense has looked pretty unorganized as a whole in most matches and according to my sources their team spirit is, understandably, pretty bad at the moment. I want to highlight that they have not even been unlucky in terms of expected goal allowed (xGA)! I believe they can improve a little defensively as the season progresses, but I still rate them as the weakest team in this league. I have significantly lowered their power rating, that illustrates the team’s pure class, from my preseason analysis. The bookies seem to have more faith in them, but the results do not lie this time – they would not have deserved more points in terms of expected points. The over-valuation is probably mainly due to the surprisingly good last season when they surprised everyone and took 13th place. Before this they played in Bundesliga 2 where they seem to belong to as they are also a pretty small club by financial resources and players total market value according to a respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. I must admit that they played well in many games last season but were also quite lucky in multiple matches and the 13th place was better than they really deserved. They somehow got into a flow state and many players simply performed above their normal level.

Let’s also remember that Bochum are a horribly bad team on the road and have lost all their four away games so far this season in Bundesliga. In their most recent away match the got completely destroyed by Leipzig. The hosts, currently in 11th place won 4-0 after 68% ball possession and creating 17 scoring attempts - Bochum had just two. Moreover, the poor visitors recorded just one shot on goal. Leipzig also recorded a stunning 4.23 in expected goals (xG) – Bochum’s xG was just 0.22 and had just 13 dangerous attacks! What a horrible performance! The odds are probably heavily affected by Bochum’s 3-0 home win over a mediocre team Eintracht Frankfurt. The final score, however, does not reflect the events on the pitch at all! The visitors had 54% ball possession and also recorded more passes, completed passes, and dangerous attacks and bit more in expected goals – 0.61-0.87. Bochum did record more four more shots on goal though.

Stuttgart, on the other hand, have taken just one more point than the visitors so far but the young team has still looked much better of these to as a whole this season. Despite the recent struggles on the pitch the players seem to fight hard and the atmosphere within the team is okay. Especially defensively they are much better thn the visitors! They have netted the ball nine so far and allowed 14 goals. They have one of the most enthusiastic and loyal home fans and now that they have sacked their coach Pellegrino Matarazzo it is time for a new beginning for them. Over 40 000 fans are expected at Mercedes-Benz Arena and the home advantage is indeed massive. In terms of expected points, they would have deserved seven more points than the five points they actually have to their account! This must be one of the reasons behind the under-valuation on the betting market.. In their most recent match they lost to Union Berlin, a dangerous team, at home 0-1 but would have deserved at least a draw after a pretty balanced battle. They recorded 1.23 in xG – Union Berlin’s number was just 0.67. The hosts have a 66% chance of taking a reliving win here!

北京时间周六晚，斯图加特主场迎战波鸿，参加德甲第 10 轮比赛。这是继英超联赛和西甲联赛之后世界第三好的联赛。德甲联赛的平均得分高于许多其他欧洲顶级联赛，而且大多数比赛都很有趣，因为几乎所有球队的目标都是打出侵略性、进攻性的足球。我相信这里也是如此，尽管两支球队都不是前 12 名球队。事实上，波鸿目前是这个联盟中的垫底球队，共有 18 家具乐部。他们只拿了四分，8分23秒糟糕透顶！事实上，他们的后卫和大多数中场球员似乎都缺乏在这个级别上打球的技能。在大多数比赛中，他们的防守整体上看起来非常无组织，根据我的消息来源，他们的团队精神目前非常糟糕，这是可以理解的。我想强调的是，就允许的预期目标（xGA）而言，他们甚至都不是不幸的！我相信随着赛季的进行他们的防守会有所提高，但我仍然认为他们是联盟中最弱的球队。根据我的季前赛分析，我已经显着降低了他们的实力等级，这说明了球队的纯粹水平。公司似乎对他们更有信心，但这次结果并没有说谎——就预期积分而言，他们不应该得到更多积分。估值过高可能主要是由于上赛季他们出乎意料的好，当时他们让所有人都感到惊讶并获得了第 13 名。在此之前，他们参加了德甲联赛 2，他们似乎属于那里，因为根据一家受人尊敬的德国网站 Transfermarkt.com 的数据，从财务资源和球员总市值来看，他们也是一家相当小的俱乐部。我必须承认，他们上赛季在很多比赛中都打得很好，但在多场比赛中也很幸运，第 13 名比他们应得的要好。他们不知何故进入了一种流动状态，许多球员只是表现得高于他们正常水平。

我们还要记住，波鸿在客场是一支糟糕透顶的球队，本赛季迄今为止在德甲联赛中的四场客场比赛都输了。在他们最近的客场比赛中被莱比锡彻底摧毁。目前排名第 11 位的东道主在 68% 的控球率和 17 次得分尝试后以 4-0 获胜——波鸿只有两次。此外，可怜的游客只记录了一次射门。莱比锡的预期进球数（xG）也达到了惊人的 4.23——波鸿的预期进球数仅为 0.22，并且只有 13 次危险进攻！多么可怕的表现！波鸿主场 3-0 击败平庸的法兰克福球队，赔率可能会受到严重影响。然而，最终的比分完全不能反映球场上的事件！客队拥有 54% 的控球率，并且记录了更多的传球、完成的传球和危险的进攻，以及更多的预期进球 - 0.61-0.87。波鸿确实记录了更多的四次射门。

另一方面，斯图加特到目前为止只比客队多一分，但是这支年轻的球队在本赛季的整体表现仍然要好得多。尽管最近在球场上表现不佳，但球员们似乎都在努力拼搏，球队内部的气氛还不错。尤其是在防守端，他们比客队要好得多！到目前为止，他们已经打进了 9 球，进了 14 球。他们拥有最热情和最忠诚的主场球迷之一，现在他们已经解雇了他们的教练佩莱格里诺·马塔拉佐，现在是他们重新开始的时候了。梅赛德斯-奔驰竞技场预计将有超过 40,000 名球迷，主场优势确实很大。就预期积分而言，他们应该比他们实际拥有的五分多出七分！这一定是博彩市场估值被低估的原因之一。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场 0-1 输给了一支危险的柏林联队，但在相当平衡的情况下至少应该打平战斗。他们在 xG 中记录为 1.23 - 柏林联合的数字仅为 0.67。主队有 66% 的机会赢得胜利！