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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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4th WINNER in a row? 挪威杯 维京VS克里斯蒂

2022-10-12

比赛分析

挪威杯

已完赛

星期四2022-10-13 00:00

解读理由

Viking VS Kristiansund


Viking host Kristiansund at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger for this NM Cup, also known as SAS Braathens Cup, 1/16-finals battle Thursday night Beijing time. There is no question about the fact that the fact that Viking are the better team by pure class. They have an edge over Kristiansund in all areas of the game. Both teams play at the highest level of Norwegian football – Elitserien. Viking currently occupy the 8th place in the standings with 33 points to their account. Their goal difference is 40:41. Kristiansund, on the other hand, have had a disappointing season and are currently in 15th place with just 18 points and a goal difference of 30:51. However, we I do not rate Viking as the 8th best team in my power ranking that illustrates the teams’ pure class. Indeed, I only see them as the 10th best team in Elitserien. They have taken three points more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points. As for the visitors the situation is the opposite. They would have deserved four more points and are in my view the 13th best team in the league. They surely have the potential to improve and avoid direct relegation to OBOS-Ligaen for next season. I have lowered their power rating from the preseason analysis as the season has progressed, but the bookies should still respect them more.

We must realize that cup matches are very often more balanced than a normal league match would be. This is true in most countries. Both teams must be very motivated here as this the competition to achieve something worthwhile this season. According to a well-known German website Transfermarkt.com the hosts’ players have a total market value of 9.75 million euros. The visitors’ squad is valued at 7.35 million. Both numbers are more or less correct reflecting that the difference in class between the teams is not that significant.. With today’s expected lineups the hosts have a 54% chance of winning but with the +1.5 goals handicap my fans and I have on over 70% chance of winning for the fourth time in a row as the bet would bring a profit even if the visitors were to lose by one goal’s difference! Let’s not forget that Viking are in very bad at the moment losing seven of their latest 10 games! They have been weak in many of these 10 matches, especially defensively. Indeed, they have allowed seven goals in their most recent three games. Moreover, they have not won any of their most recent 11 games by more than one goal’s difference! The visitors are, in fact, in much better than form than Viking having avoided the defeat in six of their latest seven matches and have truly improved from the early season. Furthermore, they have lost just one of their latest 10 games by more than one goal. In their most recent match, they played well away from home against Odd and took a point trough a 1-1 draw. They were very clear underdogs on the betting market in this match but it was a balanced battle. The hosts had two more shots on target and 56% ball possession, but Kristiansund recorded more scoring attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

维京海盗主场克里斯蒂安桑德在斯塔万格的SR-Bank竞技场为这一NM杯,也被称为SAS Braathens杯,1/16决赛的战斗,北京时间周四晚上。毫无疑问,从纯粹的级别来看,维京队是更好的球队。他们在比赛的各个方面都比克里斯蒂安松德有优势。这两支球队都在挪威最高水平的埃利特瑟琳足球俱乐部踢球。维京人目前以33分排名第8。他们的净胜球是40:41。另一方面,克里斯蒂安桑德的赛季表现令人失望,目前仅以18分和30:51的净胜球排名第15。然而,在我的实力排名中,我并不认为维京队是第8强的球队,这说明了球队的纯粹级别。事实上,我只看到他们在Elitserien排名第十。他们拿了比他们应得的多三分。至于游客,情况正好相反。他们本应该再得4分,在我看来他们是联盟第13强的球队。他们肯定有潜力提高,并在下赛季避免直接降级到o - o - ligaen。随着赛季的进展,我已经从季前赛分析中降低了他们的实力评级,但博彩公司仍然应该更加尊重他们。

我们必须意识到杯赛通常比普通联赛更加平衡。在大多数国家都是如此。两支球队在这里必须非常有动力,因为这场比赛在本赛季取得了一些有价值的成就。据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com统计,主队球员的总市值为975万欧元。客队的身价为735万英镑。这两个数字或多或少都是正确的,反映出两队之间的级别差异并不是那么显著。根据今天的预期阵容,主队有54%的机会获胜,但由于+1.5球的障碍,我的球迷和我有超过70%的机会连续第四次获胜,因为打赌将带来利润,即使客队输了一个球的差距!让我们不要忘记海盗队现在非常糟糕,他们最近10场比赛输了7场!他们在这10场比赛中的很多比赛都很弱,尤其是在防守端。事实上,他们在最近的三场比赛中丢了7球。此外,在最近的11场比赛中,他们没有赢过一场比分超过1球的比赛!事实上,客队的状态比维京好得多,他们在最近的7场比赛中有6场没有被击败,从赛季初开始确实有了进步。此外,在最近的10场比赛中,他们只输了一场1球以上的比赛。在他们最近的一场比赛中,他们在客场对阵奥德的比赛中表现出色,并在1-1战平的情况下拿到一分。在这场比赛中,他们显然在博彩市场上处于劣势,但这是一场势均力敌的战斗。东道主有两次射正和56%的控球率,但克里斯蒂安桑德记录了更多的得分尝试、进攻和危险进攻。

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