In my opinion Milan have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

It's extremely important match for the group table, both teams with 4 points on their accounts after 3 matches and both wants to avoid loss today.

One week ago Chelsea won 3:0 at home against Milan, but results looks better than their performance: expected goals scored for Chelsea 1.14, for Milan 0.42. That wasn't big surprise as Milan had horrible record in away matches at European stage against teams from Premier League.

Milan is really solid team at home - they didn't lost in 20 of last 24 home matches in Serie A. I really don't see Chelsea as a fav here. In first away match in this competition they lost 0:1 against Dinamo Zagreb so I'm not sure they are coming here with big confidence.

In addition to that Chelsea have really poor record on away against Italian teams in Champions League - they failed to win in last 7 consecutive such matches (6 losses in the process).

Milan at the weekend record big win at home against Juventus, that was fully deserved win: expected goals scored for Milan 2.28, for Juve 0.77. For sure team is full of confidence and they have all required tools to go with momentum today.

I see value on home side.

在我看来，米兰有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少拿到一分。

对于小组赛来说，这是一场极为重要的比赛，两支球队在3场比赛后都积4分，都想避免今天的失利。

一周前，切尔西主场 3:0 战胜米兰，但结果看起来比他们的表现要好：切尔西的预期进球数为 1.14，米兰为 0.42。这并不令人意外，因为米兰在欧洲舞台上客场对阵英超球队的战绩很糟糕。

米兰在主场是一支非常稳定的球队——他们在意甲的过去 24 场主场比赛中有 20 场没有输球。我真的不认为切尔西是这里的最爱。在这场比赛的第一场客场比赛中，他们以 0:1 输给了萨格勒布迪纳摩，所以我不确定他们是否有信心。

除此之外，切尔西在欧冠客场对阵意大利球队的战绩非常糟糕——他们在过去的连续7场这样的比赛中都未能取胜（其中6场失利）。 米兰在周末主场大胜尤文图斯，这是当之无愧的胜利：米兰的预期进球数为 2.28，尤文的进球数为 0.77。可以肯定的是，球队充满信心，他们拥有所有必要的工具来保持今天的势头。

我看好主队。