In my opinion Stuttgart have really good chances to make positive result in today's match up. +0 AH looks like safe and best possible bet. I don't see guests win.

Stuttgart didn't lost in 7 of last 8 matches against Union Berlin so for sure they coming for this game without any fear.

Freshness is on Stuttgart side, no doubt about that. Union 3 days ago played match in Europe League against Malmö on away. They received red card in first half and played second half with one players less on the pitch. For sure Union wasted a lot of energy in that game.

Obviously, Union results so far looks so good, but they overachieving a lot, especially on away. They scored 7 goals in 4 away matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 3.88. They conceded 3 goals in away matches, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 4.65.. Their top scorer Becker have 6 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model he should score 1.31. It's huge difference.

Stuttgart recorded so far only 5 points, but they played much better than their results shows. They had draw on away against Bayern, they had higher expected goals scored number than their opponents in both home losses (against Frankfurt and Freiburg). In last round they lost on away against Wolfsburg in very unlucky style - deciding goal conceded in injured time. Coach Matarazzo said: "We've shown in the past that we are able to bounce back; that's part of our DNA."

Numbers are not lying and Stuttgart finally will make 3 points at home, I believe home game against tired overachiever from Berlin is perfect moment.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，斯图加特有很好的机会在今天的比赛中取得积极的结果。

斯图加特在最近8场对阵柏林联盟的比赛中有7场没有输，所以可以肯定的是，他们毫无畏惧地来参加这场比赛。

毫无疑问，新鲜感在斯图加特这边。柏林联合3天前在欧洲联赛客场对阵Malmö。他们在上半场吃到了红牌，下半场少了一名球员。毫无疑问，联盟在那场比赛中浪费了很多精力。

显然，到目前为止，柏林联合的成绩看起来还不错，但他们做得太多了，尤其是客场。他们在4场客场比赛中打进7球，但根据预期进球数模型，他们应该打进3.88球。他们在客场丢了3球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢4.65球。他们的头号射手贝克尔有6粒进球，但根据预期进球数模型，他应该进1.31球。这是巨大的差异。

斯图加特到目前为止只拿到5分，但他们的表现比结果显示的要好得多。他们在客场战平了拜仁，在两场主场失利(对阵法兰克福和弗赖堡)中，他们的预期进球数都高于对手。在上一轮他们客场输给沃尔夫斯堡的比赛中，他们以非常不幸的方式输掉了比赛——在伤停补时阶段丢了一个决定胜负的球。教练马塔拉佐说:“我们在过去已经证明了我们有能力反弹;这是我们DNA的一部分。”

数据是不会说谎的，斯图加特最终将在主场得到3分，我相信主场对阵疲惫的柏林的比赛是完美的时刻。