Aldosivi VS Central Cordoba

Aldosivi host Central Cordoba for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 21 clash Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is of mediocre level by global standards and is also - similarly to many other South American leagues such as the Brazilian Serie A and B as well the Colombian Primera A, a low scoring one. There is no reason to expect too many goals here either.. I estimate the goal expectancy at just 2.01 – lower than the betting market estimates. A draw is would not surprise anyone here and the chance of this result is high – 34%. A draw would be enough to bring my fans and me the 4th winner in a row. Aldosivi are unarguably a limited team offensively - their strikers just are not fast and consistent enough to score many goals at this level, especially against the best teams with solid defense. The hosts have scored just once in their most recent three matches and have netted the ball just 12 times so far this season. However, in terms of expected goals scored they would have deserved five more goals. They must defend hard to take points and despite the fact that Central Cordoba are not a strong team I believe Aldosivi will not take big risks here and mainly aim to hurt the visitors on counter attacks. Aldosivi do not have the loudest fans, but the home advantage is still substantial. Central Cordoba are a weak team on the road and have won just twice away from home in this league this season.

Just by taking a look at the standings this pick may seem a weird as Aldosivi currently occupy the 28th place (last) in the standings with just 13 points to their account and a goal difference of 12:33. However, they are most certainly not the worst team in this league and would have deserved several more points in terms of expected points! Let’s remember that they finished fourth in Group B with a respectable 20 points in Copa de la Liga Profesional which was played before this league started. Central Cordoba, on the other hand, ended up in the second-last place in the same group with just 15 points and goal difference of 17:23. In terms of players’ total market value according to a respected German website,Transfermarkt.com,the teams are almost equal. Central Cordoba’s squad has a total market value of 9.65 million euros – Aldosivi’s number is 9.33 million. These numbers are more or less correct in my opinion indicating that by pure class there should not be no significant difference. However, I have lowered the hosts’ power rating from the pre-season analysis as the season has progressed as a result of too many lame performances and the visitors are marginally stronger as a team even with today’s expected lineups. The hosts are without Cauteruccio, Iniguez and Schelotto. The visitors’ situation is a worse though as they will have to manage without Laba, Leguizamon, Lima, Lopez, Martinez, Ramirez and Riano! However, the bookies seem to have lost all hope with Aldosivi and see the visitors as favorites here – I disagree. With the home advantage Aldosivi are slim favorites despite having lost four games in a row.. However, they have not been all that bad on the pitch - for example on the 14th of this month they would have deserved at least a point at home against a mediocre team Newells Old Boys after 65% ball possession and more goal attempts, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 68-35. Even so, the visitors took a 2-1 win.