Let us make a few data points clear first. La Liga is far better league than Austrian Bundesliga, yet Salzburg is big exception and they would do ok in La Liga. It is impossible to say where they would exactly stand if they played there, but in a single match at least they are good enough to win all of them. Perhaps somewhere at 4th-10th place like their transfer market player value suggests? They are though pioneers in scouting, buying and selling, and in my eyes a better team than their parts.

I just rewatched the first leg, and the 0-2 flatters Villarreal as they were very close to concede goals before the scrappy goal of Alcacer. Salzburg created more chances, generated 50% more shots, 100 more crosses.

Yet we have a 2-0 situation here, which is a perfect fit for a x2 pick!

In La Liga Villarreal have drawn 13 of their 24 games. 13! It is a huge number and it tells us they have huge difficulties in winning a game. Even at home they have 5-6-1 saldo, and their current position and expected data statistics confirm that they are in a right place in the table at 6th place. The five teams above them are classwise also better than them, and the class of Villarreal this season is 6th-10th despite higher expectations.

Villarreal have a Europa League specialist as a coach, Unai Emery won this competition several times with Sevilla and he knows how it works. He used a lot of rotation in the group phase, and funnily enough their best player in this competition was Kubo who since then has been transferred to Getafe!

As the leagues are incomparable it does not really mean much that Salzburg average 3.22 goals per game, except that as scoring goals still is a dificult skill there is power in the team, although one of the best players Szoboslai is now at RB Leipzig.

Salzburg came to this phase through a Champion's league group 3rd place. As there was Bayern Munchen and Atletico Madrid in their group it was a a decent achievement, and last time in Spain in October they lost 3-2 with a late goal by Joao Felix.

There are no new major injury worries at either side. Emery would like to rotate more as soon it is possible in this game as they have important La Liga fixtures coming on, but Salzburg surely have not yet surrendered. In case Villarreal do not score early the watch will also start to be on our side, but personally I doubt it as they are happy with the current score, and even in a case of leading the match late by one goal the possibility of Salzburg scoring would be no worry.

Given the streght of Salzburg attack I see them scoring once or twice here, and in most cases it is enough to at least draw the game.

2-2

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

首先让我们澄清几个数据点。西甲肯定比奥甲好得多，但萨尔茨堡是个例外，他们在奥甲的表现还不错。如果他们在那里踢球，我们不可能说他们到底会站在哪里，但至少在一场比赛中，他们有足够的实力赢得所有的比赛。也许就像他们转会市场球员的价值所暗示的那样，排在第四位到第十位?他们是球探、买卖的先驱者，在我看来，他们比他们的角色更优秀。

我刚刚重看了第一回合比赛，2:0对比利亚雷亚尔来说是一场胜利，因为他们在阿尔卡塞的进球之前就差点失球了。萨尔茨堡创造了更多的机会，多出50%的射门和100次传球。

在西甲比利亚雷亚尔的24场比赛中有13场打成平局。13 !这是一个巨大的数字，它告诉我们他们在赢得一场比赛中有巨大的困难。即使在主场，他们也有5胜6负，他们目前的位置和预期的数据统计证实了他们在积分榜第六的位置是正确的。在他们之上的五支球队都是一流的球队，比利亚雷亚尔本赛季排名第六到第十，尽管他们有更高的期望。

比利亚雷亚尔的教练是一位欧罗巴联赛的专家，埃默里在塞维利亚的时候赢得过几次欧罗巴联赛的冠军，他知道这是怎么回事。他在小组赛阶段使用了很多轮换，有趣的是，他们在这场比赛中最好的球员是久保，他后来被转移到了赫塔费!

由于两大联赛是不可比拟的，所以萨尔茨堡场均3.22个进球并不意味着什么，但因为进球仍然是一项困难的技能，所以球队中有力量，尽管最好的球员之一绍博斯莱现在在莱比锡RB。

萨尔茨堡通过冠军联赛小组第三名进入了这一阶段。由于拜仁慕尼黑和马德里竞技在他们的小组里，这是一个不错的成就，上次10月在西班牙他们3-2输了，因为Joao Felix在最后时刻的进球。

双方都没有新的重大伤病的担忧。埃莫里希望在这场重要的西甲比赛中尽快轮换，但是萨尔茨堡肯定还没有投降。早期在比利亚雷亚尔不得分表也将开始在我们这边,但就我个人而言,我怀疑这是他们满意当前的评分,甚至在领先比赛后期的一个目标萨尔茨堡得分的可能性就不会担心。

考虑到萨尔茨堡的进攻，我看到他们可以在这里进球一两个，在大多数情况下，这至少足以扳平比赛。

预测比分2:2。