Gimnasia La Plata VS Tigre

Gimnasia La Plata host Tigre for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 21battle at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata. This league is of mediocre level by global standards and is of similarly to many other South American leagues, for example the Brazilian Serie A and B, a low-scoring. There is no reason to expect many goals in this match either. This suits us well as a draw is certainly a pretty probable result here. The draw will win the recommended bet +0.5 goals on Tigre - the chance of this result is 33%. The bookies see the hosts as favorites here but I disagree and rate Tigre as slim favorites. Gimnasia La Plata usually play quite defensive football and I expect them to do that as well here even in front their fans as Tigre are very dangerous, especially on counterattacks if the opponent takes the big risks. Indeed, the hosts have scored just 21 goals but have also allowed just 11 goals. However, in terms of expected goals they should have conceded 16 goals. Even so, they do have a solid defense - especially structure-wise. However, Tigre do have the tools to hurt them.

Gimnasia La Plata currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with 36 points to their account. This is a surprise, probably to the players themselves. I would be shocked if they were able to stay in top-4 until the end of the season. In fact, I only rated them as the 10th best team in this league in my power ratings. They have grabbed some five points more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points which must be one of the reasons behind the over-valuation on the betting market. In their most recent match, the hosts lost to Central Cordoba 0-1 away from home after a pretty lame performance. Central Cordoba are not great team and currently occupy the 22th place in the standings. Before this they did beat Arsenal Sarandi 2-0 at home as clear favorites according to the bookies and were only slightly the better team. The ball possession was 52-48% in their favor. The final score is somewhat misleading. Furthermore, before this they lost to Newells Old Boys 0-2 and looked lame offensively. Tigre, on the other hand, are in fine form and have lost any of their latest five matches. In their most recent game they comfortably took all three points against Velez Sarsfield. Before this they were a bit they were good away from home against Godoy Cruz and took a point through 1-1 draw as underdogs. They will surely climb up the standings from the current 14th place during the remainder of the season! The potential is indeed big.