Wales VS Poland

Wales welcome Poland for this UEFA Nations League League A round 6 clash at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff. A balanced match is very probable here and a high-scoring match is unlikely. Wales usually play pretty defensive football even at home - mainly because they are pretty limited offensively and heavily on Gareth Bale, a declining super star. At the time of writing this it is unsure whether he will play today or not. He entered the pitch in the 66th minute in Belgium. Belgium are, of course, a good team, but still not even close to top-5 on the planet. Belgium won the match only 2-1 despite clearly the better team on the pitch and could easily have won by a bigger gap. Belgium had almost 70% ball possession and also recorded much more passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. With this kind of performance Wales will probably not beat Poland here – despite the fact that Poland are, of course, not at Belgium’s level. Before this they faced Netherlands away from home and were lucky to score two goals as they only recorded three shots on goal. The Netherlands recorded seven shots on Wales’s goal also crated whopping 22 scoring attempts and also created much more in expected goals. I really cannot agree with the odds offered by the bookies – Wales being the favorites. The goal expectancy is on my view lower than the bookies estimate and the probability of a draw is quite high – 33%. With the +1 goals handicap on Poland (we would win if this were a draw) my fans and I have a very good chance of winning.

Neither team are in good shape at the moment and are winless in their past four matches. Even so Poland have looked better on the pitch as a whole this year. The latest win Wales have achieved was early in the summer against a good team Ukraine in the World Cup Qualification promotion match. Wales qualifying for the World Cup is surprising and somewhat unjustified and probably effect the odds too much here as well. Ukraine were the much better team in this match with close to 70% ball possession, and recorded much more goal attempts (10-24), shots on goal (2-9) and expected goals. Even so, Wales defended well and qualified trough A. Yarmolenko’s own goal! Poland lost to a very good team Netherlands 0-2 in their most recent match and would not have deserved a win. Netherlands were clear favorites in this match according to the bookies so the loss is nothing the Poles should be too worried about.. They too had their chances in this match. In the Netherlands they did well to take a 2-2 draw. Furthermore, in Poland early this summer Poland beat Wales 2-1.

威尔士欢迎波兰参加在加的夫卡迪夫城体育场举行的欧国联 A 轮第 6 轮比赛。这里很可能会进行平衡的比赛，而不太可能进行高分比赛。即使在主场，威尔士通常也会踢出漂亮的防守足球——主要是因为他们在进攻端非常有限，而且严重依赖于衰落的超级球星加雷斯·贝尔。在撰写本文时，不确定他今天是否会参加比赛。他在比利时的第 66 分钟进入了球场。比利时当然是一支优秀的球队，但仍然没有接近世界前五。比利时队仅以 2-1 获胜，尽管球场上的球队显然更好，而且很容易以更大的差距获胜。比利时拥有近 70% 的控球率，并且记录了更多的传球、完成的传球、进攻和危险进攻。凭借这种表现，威尔士可能不会在这里击败波兰——尽管波兰当然没有比利时的水平。在此之前，他们在客场面对荷兰并且很幸运进了两个球，因为他们只记录了三脚射门。荷兰队在威尔士的进球中记录了 7 次射门，也创造了惊人的 22 次得分尝试，并且还创造了更多的预期进球。我真的不能同意机构提供的指数——威尔士是最受欢迎的。在我看来，目标预期低于博彩公司的估计，而平局的概率相当高——33%。在波兰的+1进球让分（如果这是平局我们会赢）我的球迷和我很有可能获胜。

两支球队目前状态不佳，过去四场比赛均未尝胜绩。即便如此，波兰今年在球场上的整体表现也更好。威尔士最近取得的胜利是在夏初的世界杯预选赛晋级赛中对阵一支优秀的球队乌克兰。威尔士晋级世界杯令人惊讶且有些不合理，并且可能在这里也影响了太多的赔率。乌克兰是更好的球队在这场比赛中，他拥有接近 70% 的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球尝试（10-24）、射门次数（2-9）和预期进球。即便如此，威尔士的防守很好，并且通过了亚尔莫连科的乌龙球获得了资格！波兰在最近的一场比赛中以 0-2 输给了一支非常出色的球队荷兰，本不值得获胜。根据博彩公司的说法，荷兰队在这场比赛中显然是最受欢迎的，所以波兰人不应该太担心失利。他们在这场比赛中也有机会。在荷兰，他们做得很好，以 2-2 平局。此外，今年夏初在波兰，波兰2-1击败威尔士。