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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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An interesting match in Iceland! 有趣的欧青赛

2022-09-23

比赛分析

欧青U21外

已完赛

星期六2022-09-24 00:00

解读理由

Iceland U21 VS Czech Republic U21



Iceland U21 welcome Czech Republic for this EURO U21 Qualification promotion final first leg at Víkingsvöllur in Reykjavík, the capital of Iceland. The stakes are high here and I expect pretty cautious football here, especially in the first half. Even if one team takes the lead - the team trailing will probably not take too big risks as this is only the first leg. In my view the goal expectancy is lower here than the betting market, and a draw would certainly not be a surprise at all. The probability if this result is 31%. A draw would leave everything open for the second leg. Czech Republic are a better football country as a whole than the small island nation of Iceland. If this were men’s game the odds would be quite different. However, the difference between these U21 teams is quite small indeed. In terms of players’ individual skill level, the Czechs are clearly better but I see Iceland as the more organized – better-structured team and defensively the teams are more or less equal in my opinion. I cannot agree with the betting market here – the visitors being solid favorites priced around 2.35 by most big bookmakers. In my view there is no favorite at all and this mean the clever bet here is to bet on Iceland with the +0.5 goals handicap option. The chance of winning is around 66%.

Both teams are in pretty good form indeed and we can expect a fine match for this level. Iceland have, in fact, not lost any of their most recent five games and have won three matches in a row. The opponent were not that good in these matches though. They beat Cyprus U21 5-0, Belarus 3-1 and Liechtenstein 9-0 (!). All of the above were home games and I loved the way Iceland played not giving the opponent a true chance to win. They looked confident and seemed to have an awesome team spirit too. Football is clearly the biggest sport in Iceland I expect a good number of Icelandic fans at the stadium today. It is indeed a massive match for this small country especially now as their men’s team’s level has dropped from the glory years of 2016 and 2018. Iceland U21 can do well against the best teams as well and for example forced Portugal U21 to a draw away from home as massive underdogs on the betting market. The visitors have won three of their most recent five matches and have been a bit erratic. On a good day they are of course very dangerous..

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

冰岛U21欢迎捷克参加本次U21欧洲杯预选赛第一回合比赛,地点为冰岛首都Reykjavík Víkingsvöllur。这里的赌注很高,我预计这里的足球会非常谨慎,尤其是在上半场。即使一支球队领先,落后的球队也不会冒太大的风险,因为这只是第一回合。在我看来,这里的目标预期比博彩市场要低,平局肯定不会让人感到意外。这个结果的概率是31%平局将为第二回合留下机会。从整体上看,捷克是一个比冰岛这个小岛国更好的足球国家。如果这是男人的游戏,胜算就大不一样了。然而,这些U21球队之间的差距确实很小。就球员的个人技术水平而言,捷克显然更好,但我认为冰岛更有组织性——结构更好,在我看来,两支球队在防守上几乎不相上下。我不同意这里的博彩市场——游客是最受欢迎的,大多数大型博彩公司定价在2.35左右。在我看来,没有哪支球队是最受欢迎的,这意味着聪明的赌注是把赌注押在冰岛身上,因为冰岛有+0.5球的障碍选项。中奖几率约为66%。

两支球队的状态都非常好,我们可以期待一场在这个级别的比赛。事实上,冰岛队在最近的五场比赛中没有输过一场,而且已经取得了三连胜。然而,在这些比赛中,对手并没有那么好。他们5-0击败塞浦路斯U21, 3-1击败白俄罗斯,9-0击败列支敦士登(!)以上都是主场比赛,我喜欢冰岛的比赛方式,他们没有给对手真正的获胜机会。他们看起来很自信,似乎也有令人敬畏的团队精神。足球显然是冰岛最大的运动,我预计今天会有很多冰岛球迷在体育场。对于这个小国来说,这的确是一场盛大的比赛,尤其是在他们的男足水平与2016年和2018年的辉煌相比有所下降的今天。冰岛U21也能在对阵强队时表现出色,例如,在博彩市场上,他们迫使葡萄牙U21在客场打平。客队在最近的五场比赛中赢了三场,表现有点不稳定。在天气好的时候,他们当然是非常危险的。

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