I did preview Barca v Cadiz last week, it ended 1-1, should had more like 3-0 with any normal like. Although have to admit that a lot of the +20 Barcelona shots were off target and seemed a bit hasty. However the title race in La Liga has come back to live with Atletico dropping points unexpectedly, and this time Barcelona will not step off gas too early.

In the table Barcelona trail Atletico by 8 points, in the expected goals and points table with concentrates on performances they might be leading! And that includes the poor start of the season, on 2021 Barcelona have clearly been the best team, and as they are pretty much out of CL too by now they will not drop easy points anymore.

But will they cover the high handicap? Let us take a look at their latest La Liga games:

上周我预测了巴萨对加的斯的比赛，比赛以1-1结束，而正常情况下都应该是3-0的比分。尽管不得不承认，巴塞罗那20多次射门都没有命中目标，而且显得有些草率。然而，西甲联赛的冠军争夺赛又有了悬念，马竞的状态开始下滑，这一次巴塞罗那应该不会再次泄气。

巴塞罗那落后马竞8分，但在预期目标和得分表中，他们甚至领先于马竞！包括本赛季的开局不佳，到2021年，巴萨显然是最好的球队之一，并且由于他们现在大概率会在欧冠出局，他们不能再在联赛中丢掉积分了。

但是他们打穿这样的指数吗？让我们看一下他们最近的西甲比赛：

Pretty impressive is it not? There is also the away game at Elche which describes the quality difference well.

Since then Elche have also changed their manager as Fran Escriba returned, and indeed he got a result last week:

是不是很令人印象深刻？ 包括了对阵埃尔切的客场比赛，很好展示了实力的差距。

从那以后，埃尔切更换了主教练，随着Fran Escriba的到来，上周他得到了一个不错的结果：

It was their first win in 16 rounds, which tells us that Elche is not a very good material-wise, and it is no wonder the previous manager decided to surrender after their latest loss. Winning Eibar was mentally huge, there were a few twitches in the formation and players, but as the 0.4 xG, worth of goal expectation shows the biggest difference was that this time they were lucky!

Elche are clearly the weakest team in my books, biggest favourite to relegate and the only way to survive is to win the right games, and Barcelona is not one of them.

Injury-wise Barcelona are unchanged, Elche have defensive midfielder Marcone suspended and a few doubts here and there. Top scorer Fidel returns to squad after lengthy period of injury.

Elche coach Escribe would be foolish to give this match a 100% concentration and risk for further injuries as their main match of the week is vs Granada who are playing away at Napoli on Thursday, and who are regardless the result tired and less concentrated and could be an easy target.

There is a catch too in that Barcelona will face Sevilla already on Saturday and some 2nd half rotation is likely in case of a comfortable lead, but there are several options now on the bench too that might actually improve the Barcelona team, but the main reasons for me here are the overall poor class of Elche, and the likely giving up after the match is decided and we could even have here ugly numbers!

5-0

这是他们在16轮比赛中的首场胜利，这告诉我们埃尔切在实力上不是很强，而且也难怪前任经理在最近的比赛结果之后决定辞职战胜埃瓦尔后他们的信心非常强大，阵型和队员都有一些变化，但随着0.4 xG的预期进球显示出他们的确很幸运！

埃尔切显然是最弱的球队，最大的降级热门，生存的唯一方法就是争取赢得正确的比赛，而巴塞罗那显然不是其中之一。

巴塞罗那的伤病情况没有改变，埃尔切的防守型中场马科内被禁赛，还有一些出战存疑的球员。最佳射手菲德尔经过长时间的受伤后重返球队。

埃尔切（Elche）教练埃斯特（Escribe）如果选择本场比赛的注意力集中在100％上是愚蠢的，因为本周更重要的比赛是格拉纳达，而格拉纳达星期四在那不勒斯（Napoli）上场比赛，无论结果如何，他的注意力都不会太集中且集中，所以这可能是一个更简单的目标。

巴塞罗那在周六要面对塞维利亚，如果领先的情况下很可能会在下半场轮换，但是现在替补席上还有很多选择，并且可能会真正改善巴塞罗那，但是主要原因对我来说还是埃尔切的实力太差，本场甚至可能会有很大的比分！

比分参考5-0