In my opinion Porto have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up. I don't see Atletico as so big favorite here.

Both teams played each other in group stage in previous season and Porto was able to avoid loss in Madrid (0:0), so why not today?

Porto coming for this game with the strongest possible line up. On the other hand Atletico is without key central defender Savic and key striker Cunha. In addition to that first goalkeeper Oblak is very doubtful for this game.

I'm not convinced by Atletico results so far. They played 4 matches in La Liga: they won 3:0 on away against Getafe, but that looks good only on the paper (expected goals scored for Getafe 0.70, for Atletico 1.18). They lost 0:2 at home against Villarreal. They won 1:0 on away against Valencia and that was deserved. At the weekend they recorded draw 1:1 on away against Sociedad and that was fair. Atletico defensive formation doesn't looked so solid - their opponents created 8 big chances in 4 matches and without Savic and maybe Oblak, I see big problems for them to keep clean sheet. Atletico failed to win in opening match of Champions League group stage in last three occasions.

Porto obviously have good potential in attack (striker Mehdi Taremi is in red hot form) - they scored 12 goals (12.40 expected goals scored) in their 5 league matches. They were able to keep clean sheet in 3 of last 4 matches. They lost once in this season, 1:3 on away against Rio Ave, but that wasn't deserved result at all: expected goals scored for Rio Ave 0.68, for Porto 2.45. In last round they bounced back in good style as they won 2:0 against Rio Ave on away. Porto didn't lost in 4 of last 6 opening matches in group stage of Champions League.

Atletico failed to win in last 8 (!) consecutive home matches in Champions League so on those circumstances I see clear value on away side.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，波尔图有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少拿到一分。我不认为马竞是这里的大热门。

两支球队在上个赛季的小组赛中交手，波尔图在对阵马德里的比赛中避免了失利(0:0)，那么今天为什么不呢?

波尔图将带着最强大的阵容来参加这场比赛。另一方面，马竞缺少关键中卫萨维奇和关键前锋库尼亚。除此之外，第一门将奥布拉克在本场比赛中的表现也很不确定。

到目前为止，我还不相信马竞的结果。他们在西甲踢了4场比赛:客场3:0战胜赫塔菲，但这看起来只是在纸上(赫塔菲的预期进球数为0.70，马竞的预期进球数为1.18)。他们在主场0:2输给了比利亚雷亚尔。他们在客场1:0战胜瓦伦西亚，这是他们应得的。周末他们客场1:1战平社会，这是公平的。马竞的防守阵型看起来不那么稳固——他们的对手在4场比赛中创造了8次大机会，没有萨维奇和奥布拉克，我认为他们要保持零封是一个大问题。马竞最近三次在欧冠小组赛的首场比赛中都未能获胜。

波尔图显然在进攻方面有很好的潜力(前锋塔雷米正处于火热状态)——他们在5场联赛中打进12球(12.40个预期进球)。在过去的4场比赛中，他们有3场没有失球。他们本赛季输了一次，客场1:3输给了里约热内卢Ave，但这根本不是应得的结果:里约热内卢Ave的预期进球为0.68，波尔图为2.45。在上一轮，他们在客场2:0战胜里约热内卢Ave队，表现出色。波尔图在欧冠小组赛最近6场首场比赛中有4场没有输球。

马竞在欧冠联赛中连续8场主场比赛都没赢，所以在这种情况下，我看到了客场的价值。