Lahti vs KuPS

Lahti welcome KuPS for this Suomen Cup (Finnish Cup) semi-final match at Lahden Stadion. There is no doubt about the fact that KuPS are the favorites here with a 56% chance of winning. They are the better team in all areas of the game – especially defensively. However, they have showed some weakness in this area lately and have kept a clean sheet just once in their most recent five matches. Overall, their level has dropped quite a lot from the early season and once again we must go against them in handicap betting. Their coach Valakari wanting to leave to work in Scotland surely has left a negative mark on the team. He did not eventually got the job at Motherwell though. There is no reason to think this would an easy match for the team from Kuopio. They have not won many games in Finland with more than one goal’s margin and their self-confidence clearly took a hit in Europe as Young Boys toyed with them winning 5-0 on aggregate and did not even have to field their best players. We must remember that for KuPS Suomen Cup is not the main thing this season – winning Veikkausliiga is and they have a good chance to do that as HJK, Honka and KuPS are in a very close battle. Lahti, on the other hand are having a disappointing season and Suomen Cup is the only thing they really have left to play for. They are 99% safe from relegation as HIFK are a hopelessly bad team and the gap in points is already big. Lahti have in fact improved a bit lately compared to their darkest moments in July. The chance of them not losing this by more than one goal’s difference is 70%. They have a more structured defense now and also seem to have a better team spirit. Lahti also have a few new players.

KuPS were not great in their most recent match against FC Inter away from home despite grabbing a 2-1 win through a 90+5 goal after Inter were one man down after a red card. Before this they were beaten by SJK and on the 14th of this month took a narrow home win over IFK Mariehamn in a match that could easily have been a draw as well. They somehow seem to be lacking energy at the moment which is understandable as some key players have played a lot. Lahti lost to Mariehamn in their most recent match 0-2 but would have deserved a draw. Before this they had to defend quite a lot in Vaasa but traveled home with a morale-boosting 3-2 win. A good number of spectators is expected at the stadium today and we must remember that cup games in general are very often more balanced than the league table would suggest.

拉赫蒂迎战库普斯 参加在拉赫登体育场举行的芬兰杯（芬兰杯）半决赛。毫无疑问，KuPS 是这里的最爱，获胜的几率为 56%。他们在比赛的各个方面都是更好的球队——尤其是防守端。然而，他们最近在这方面表现出一些弱点，并且在最近的五场比赛中只保持了一次不失球。总体而言，他们的水平与赛季初相比下降了很多，我们必须再次在让分盘投注中与他们对抗。他们的教练瓦拉卡里想离开苏格兰工作，这肯定给球队留下了负面印象。不过，他最终没有在马瑟韦尔得到这份工作。没有理由认为这对库奥皮奥的球队来说是一场轻松的比赛。他们在芬兰赢得的比赛并不多于一球的领先优势，而他们的自信心显然在欧洲受到了打击，因为年轻男孩们玩弄他们以总比分 5-0 获胜，甚至不必派出他们最好的球员。我们必须记住，对于 KuPS 芬兰堡杯来说，本赛季并不是主要的事情——赢得 Veikkausliiga 才是，他们很有机会做到这一点，因为 HJK、Honka 和库普斯的战斗非常接近。另一方面，拉赫蒂的赛季令人失望，芬兰堡杯是他们唯一可以为之效力的事情。他们有 99% 的安全率不会降级，因为 HIFK 是一支无可救药的糟糕球队，而且积分差距已经很大。事实上，与七月最黑暗的时刻相比，拉赫蒂最近有所改善。他们不以超过一球的差距输掉比赛的机会是 70%。他们现在有更结构化的防守，而且似乎也有更好的团队精神。拉赫蒂也有一些新球员。

库普斯在最近一次客场对阵国际土尔库的比赛中表现不佳，尽管在国际米兰因红牌落后一人后以 90+5 的比分取得了 2-1 的胜利。在此之前，他们被 SJK 击败，并在本月 14 日的一场比赛中主场险胜 IFK 玛丽港。这也很容易成为平局。他们现在不知何故似乎缺乏能量，这是可以理解的，因为一些关键球员已经打了很多球。拉赫蒂在最近的一场比赛中以 0-2 输给了玛丽港，但本应打平。在此之前，他们不得不在瓦萨进行相当多的防守，但最终以 3-2 的胜利回家，鼓舞了士气。预计今天体育场将有大量观众，我们必须记住，杯赛通常比联赛表显示的更平衡。