Barcelona have scored 28 goals in their 11 home games, the xG suggests that they should had scored even a few more. It is 10 expected goals more than any other La Liga side, and four times they have scored at least 4 goals and beaten this handicap. In the games they have not beaten it has been either the case of a good opponent like Real Madrid or Real Sociedad, or bad luck in finishing, or the absence of Leo Messi who continues to perform at a miraculous level.

巴塞罗那在他们的11个主场比赛中已经进了28个球，预期进球认为他们应该进更多的球。这比任何西甲球队都要多进10个球，他们有四次至少进了4个球。在他们没有取胜的比赛中，要么是由于遇到了像皇家马德里或皇家社会这样的好对手，要么是射门时运气不佳，要么是因为缺少了梅西，而梅西仍在以不可思议的水平继续发挥。

Take a look at this chart for example, as usual his numbers are out of the scale compared to others!

The CL game vs PSG highlighted the Barcelona weaknesses in the defense, but today there is no Mbappe, Paredes and others, but Negredo and Lozano who are fed by Fali and Jonsson. That is if they ever get the ball in the midfield.

Barcelona have improved game by game this year, they have won last 7 La Liga games, they are unbeaten in 12. In fact their latest loss came away at Cadiz in early December! It is a good reminder that also Cadiz must be taken seriously. There is no change in injury situation.

冠军联赛对阵巴黎圣日耳曼的比赛凸显了巴萨在防守上的弱点，但今天没有姆巴佩、帕雷德斯和其他球员，只有法里和琼森的替补内格雷多和洛扎诺。前提是他们能在中场拿到球。

巴塞罗那今年一场接一场的进步，他们赢得了西甲的7场比赛，12场不败。事实上，他们最近的一次失利是在12月初的加的斯。这是一个很好的提醒，加的斯也必须被认真对待。伤病情况没有改变。

That match was also a turning point to Cadiz, who ever since has won only once in their 11 games, and that was at home vs weak travelling side Alaves who were at their weakest point of the season at that time. Recently their form has dropped to the level that their player material suggests,

那场比赛也是加的斯队的一个转折点，他们在11场比赛中只赢了一场，那是在主场对阵实力较弱的客场球队阿拉维斯，后者当时是他们本赛季最弱的时刻。最近他们的状态已经下降到球员资料所显示的水平，

and the top-6 sides have made fun of the Cadiz defense, and have scored 15 goals in last 4 games against them.

Why has the Cadiz form dropped so badly? I can see three reasons. Firstly they overperformed in the start of the season, got excellent results which also rose their self-confidence to the sky, and the positive spin created more good results. Secondly it is common for the newly promoted sides to do well in the start of the season.

Secondly they still have been overperforming defensively by 10 goals, and starting to concede goals vs top sides was just a matter of time.

Thirdly they do not have the depth to deal with injuries, and also today they miss at least 5 regulars starters which will show in their build-up play and the midfield balance. Last Monday they hosted Athletic Bilbao and gave a truly weak performance, and for Bilbao it was about the first time in hundred of years to score 3 goals already in the first half! Today the lineup of Cadiz is even worse than in that game, ever-present defender and backbone Juan Cala is suspended.

I can not say I am a big fan of handicaps this big, but the class difference currently vs these teams is at least 3 goals so it is well worth a take against a team who won their first 4 away matches in La Liga, but since then it has been more quiet.

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前六名的球队也嘲笑加的斯的防守，在过去的4场比赛中打进了15个球。

为什么加的斯的成绩下降得这么厉害?我认为有三个原因。首先，他们在赛季开始的时候表现的很好，取得了优异的成绩，这也让他们的自信心飞上了天，积极的心态创造了更多的好成绩。其次，新晋级的球队在赛季初表现出色是很常见的。

其次，他们在防守上的表现确实超出预期，在对阵顶级球队时失球只是时间问题。

第三，他们没有足够的阵容深度来处理伤病，而且今天他们至少错过了5名主力首发，这将在他们的中场平衡和加强进攻中体现出来。上周一，他们在对阵毕尔巴鄂竞技队的比赛中表现不佳，而对于毕尔巴鄂来说，这是几百年来第一次在上半场就打进3球!今天加的斯的阵容甚至比那场比赛还要糟糕，一直存在的后卫和骨干胡安卡拉被停赛。

我通常不会这么冒险，但我认为这确实值得尝试。看好巴萨大比分取胜。

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