Internacional RS VS Juventude

Internacional host Juventude for this Brazilian Serie round 24 A clash at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre. This is a high-quality league by global standards and is both great to watch and to bet on. Similarly to many other South American leagues Serie A is a low-scoring league here the goal expectancy is a bit higher than on average. However, I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. This supports my idea to go with +1.5 goals handicap on the visitors. My fans and I will win even if Juventude lose by one goal’s margin. The chance of winning is 67%. Juventude often play cautious, defensive football away from home. Even when trailing by one goal’s difference they rarely raise the risk level that much. Indeed, they have lost just one of their latest 10 matches by more than one goal. This happened on the 21st of July against a very good team Flamengo 0-4 away from home. Flamengo are in the second place in the standings. Internacional are a clearly weaker team then Flamengo. They currently occupy the 6th place and have grabbed 39 points so far. They have had quite a few offensive problems in many of their recent matches and have failed to score at all in three of their latest five matches winning just two of these.

The situation ahead of this match is very clear. The hosts are the better team by raw class and are the better team in every area of the game and have a 56% chance to win. The biggest difference is in offensive creativity and structure. It is possible that they find a fine offensive rhythm here – perhaps – through an early goal but clear wins are still pretty rare in this league. Juventude are the rock-bottom team at the moment but I see them having potential to improve. They would have to be more creative in offense and improve passing accuracy. They have been unlucky this season in terms of expected goals and points. Both are commonly used statistical tools by professional football bettors to spot under – or over-valued teams. The hosts, on the other hand, have had luck in quite a few matches this season. Juventude were okay in their latest match and took a point from Botafogo. Before this they lost to Cuiaba as clear underdogs according to the betting market away from home but would have deserved a draw after a pretty balanced match.