Independiente vs Huracan

Independiente welcome Huracan at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 14 clash. This league is, similarly to many other South American leagues – especially Brazilian Serie A and B as well as Colombian Primera A, low-scoring. Almost all teams are capable of pretty organized football and very high-scoring games are extremely rare. This match has on even lower than on average goal expectancy – and lower than the bookies seem to estimate. Interestingly both the betting market and I see the draw as the most probably result here! The probability is 37%. Just one of both teams’ most recent five matches have gone over the 2.5 goals total line. The probability of my fans and I winning is 75% with the +0.5 goals handicap bet on Huracan as a draw would be enough.

The hosts are having a very disappointing season and I do think they have some potential for better performances but at the moment things look grim for them. The bookies probably give too much emphasis on this potential.. They have won just one of their latest nine games and would not, in all honesty, have deserved much more. They have a total of just three wins so far in this league and I believe they would need some luck to take all three points here. They have a total of 12 points to their account and a goal difference of 12:16. They have had massive problems with their offense for quite a while now. It lacks structure, pace, creativity, passing accuracy is often also quite weak neat the opponent’s goal and their self-confidence is also – understandably – low. In their most recent match, they failed to beat the rock-bottom team Lanus and this horribly low-level match ended in a 1-1 draw. Independiente had close to 70% ball possession but still did not create much in expected goals. They recorded just two shots on goal and Lanus also had more scoring attempts. The only recent win the visitors grabbed happened on the 2nd of this month away from home 3-0 over Colon Santa Fe and was an undeserved one. The hosts made some silly mistakes and wasted their chances in this match. Huracan, on the other hand, have been in great form for quite a while but still do not seem to get respect on the betting market. They are, of course, not a traditional big team in Argentina which might be when factor behind the under-valuation. I have been very positively surprised by their performances -especially defensively - and have raised their power rating that illustrates the teams’ pure class. They have allowed the opponent very little in expected goals in several matches. Moreover, let’s remember that they have lost just one of their most recent 12 matches and completely dominated Sarmiento Junin four days ago at home winning 4-1 after around 70% ball possession and 13 goal attempts. The visitors only recorded one shot on goal and Huracan created massively more in expected goals! Before this they quite comfortably defeated Aldosivi 1-0 away from home.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

独立队在阿维利亚内达América解放者体育场欢迎胡拉坎参加阿根廷西甲联赛第14轮的比赛。这个联赛和许多其他南美联赛一样——尤其是巴西的意甲和乙级联赛以及哥伦比亚的甲级联赛——得分很低。几乎所有的球队都有能力进行有组织的足球比赛，而得分很高的比赛是非常罕见的。这场比赛的预期目标甚至低于平均水平，也低于机构的估计。有趣的是，机构和我都认为这是最有可能的结果!概率是37%。两队最近的五场比赛中，只有一场的进球数超过了2.5个。我和我的球迷获胜的概率是75%，加上Huracan +0.5个球的差点，平局就足够了。

东道主本赛季的表现非常令人失望，我确实认为他们有更好表现的潜力，但目前形势对他们来说很严峻。机构可能过于强调这种潜力了。他们在最近的九场比赛中只赢了一场，老实说，他们不应该得到更多。到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中总共只赢了三场，我相信他们需要一些运气来拿到所有的三分。他们的账户上总共有12分，净胜球为12:16。很长一段时间以来，他们的进攻都有很多问题。它缺乏结构、速度、创造力，传球的准确性也常常很弱，对手的球门也很不整齐，他们的自信心也很低，这是可以理解的。在最近的一场比赛中，他们没能击败排名垫底的拉努斯，这场糟糕的比赛以1比1战平。独立队的控球率接近70%，但仍然没有创造多少预期的进球。他们只有2次射门得分，拉努斯也有更多的射门机会。客队最近获得的唯一一场胜利发生在本月2日客场3-0战胜科隆圣达菲的比赛中，这是一场不应得的胜利。东道主在这场比赛中犯了一些愚蠢的错误，浪费了他们的机会。另一方面，胡拉坎在相当长的一段时间内一直保持着良好的状态，但似乎仍然没有得到博彩市场的尊重。当然，他们不是阿根廷传统的豪门球队，这可能是造成低估的原因。我对他们的表现感到非常惊讶，尤其是在防守端，我提高了他们的能量等级，这说明了这支球队的纯粹水平。在几场比赛中，他们给对手的预期进球很少。此外，让我们记住他们在最近的12场比赛中只输了一场，并且在四天前的主场以70%的控球率和13次射门4-1取胜。客队只有一次射正，而胡拉坎创造了更多的预期进球!在此之前，他们在客场1-0轻松击败了奥多西维。