Sonderjyske vs Helsingor

Sonderjyske welcome Helsingor at Sydbank Park in Haderslev round 5 of Danish 1st Division. This is the tier of Danish football and of nor very high-level by global standards. It is, however, still better than the Swedish Superettan - let alone the Finnish Ykkönen. The bookies have, in my view, made very clear mistake here posting significantly too low odds on the hosts, especially in handicap betting! Indeed, the best choice is to go with the +1.5 goals’ handicap option on the visitors as we have clear edge available, and the chance of winning is big. Indeed, the visitors have a 72% chance to avoid losing by more than two goals difference bringing my fans and me the 5th winner in a row! The hosts are the better team here by pure but not by massive clear margin. The home advantage is there the atmosphere is often not that awesome at the stadium. Even so, Sonderjyske have a 54% chance of taking all three points here. Last season the hosts had a horrible season and were relegated from Superliga. I definitely expect them to weaker than the betting market does this season. Even so, they have a genuine chance of promoting back. The visitors played a strong last season and finished in the 4th place in the promotion group with 55 points and very good goal difference of 65:44, but they have potential for another good season. I see their defense in particular for this league.

The hosts have started the season very well, especially results-wise. They have grabbed 12 points so far winning all four. Helsigor have just three points but would have deserved more. The hosts’ goal difference is 13:3 which is too good in terms of expected goals and the 12 points is also too much in terms of expected points which partly in explains the over-valuation on the betting market here. Both statistics are commonly used by professional football bettors to identify over- or undervalued teams aiming at finding lucrative matches to bet of course. The hosts were definitely good in their most recent match beating Hobro 3-0 away from home and did deserve the win, but the final score does not reflect the events on the pitch. In terms of expected goals Sonderjyske created 2.13 goals – Hobro’s number was 1.78. Moreover, Hobro even recorded more goal attempts - 25-17 – attacks and dangerous attacks. Ball possession was 50-50%. Helsingor, on the other hand, were not at their best three days ago against Hvidore at home and lost 0-3 but still recorded respectable 12 scoring attempts. Before this they beat Frederica 3-2 in this league and Hvidore 4-2 away from home in Landspokal Cup after a fine offensive performance. They will surely soon start climbing up the standings!