Hvidovre VS Fremad Amager

Hvidovre host Fremad Amager Pro Ventilation Arena in Hvidovre round 5 of Danish 1st Division. This is the second-highest level of Danish football and of nor very high-level by global standards. It is still better than the Swedish Superettan - let alone the Finnish Ykkönen. The bookies have, in my opinion, made a clear mistake here offering way too low odds on the hosts! The best option is to go with the +1.5 goals handicap option on the visitors as we have a nice edge available, and the chance of winning is high. Indeed, the visitors have a 73% chance to avoid losing by more than two goals difference bringing my fans and me the 5th winner in a row! The hosts are the better team here by pure but not by a very clear margin. The home advantage is there but Hvidore are not a super-strong home team and do not have the best fans either.. Even so they have a 55% chance of taking all three points. Furthermore, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts’ players’ total market value is just marginally more than that of Fremad Amager, 3.65 million euros. The players’ total market value is a surprisingly good indicator of a team’s level on the pitch.. However, if two players are equally good - and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35 - the younger player is, of course, much more valuable.. Last season Hvidovre finished third in the promotion group where top 6 teams played but I expect them to be a bit weaker this season. The visitors played in the relegation group, but they have potential for much better performance.

Both teams have started the season quite well – the hosts have been achieved clearly better results in this league though. They have grabbed 10 points so far winning three matches and playing one draw. Amager have four points to their account and have a goal difference of 4:5. The hosts’ goal difference is 10:3 which is too good in terms of expected goals and the 10 points is also too much in terms of expected points which partly in explains the over-valuation on the betting market here. The hosts were unarguably good in their most recent match beating Helsingor 3-0 away from home and deserved the win, but the final score is very misleading! Indeed, Helsingor even recorded more goal attempts and dangerous attacks. Amager, on the other hand, were also quite good in their most recent match against Naestved and it was a goalless draw at home. The visitors were the favorites in this clash according to the bookies. In the Landspokal Cup the hosts were bad and lost to Helsingor at homer and lost 2-4. Amager managed to beat Hillerod 1-0 at home in the same competition.