Beer Sheva vs Lugano

Beer Sheva welcome Lugano at Toto Turner Stadium for this UEFA Conference League qualification 2nd leg. The hosts are an Israeli club – the visitors come from Switzerland. Stakes as big as qualifying for the group phase would mean a lot for both teams who are not used to achieving any true success in UEFA’s club competitions before. Millions of euros in prize money are waiting for the teams that make it to the group phase.. Both teams have a genuine chance of making it to the final round of qualification, as last week at Stadio di Cornaredo in Lugano was a 2-0 upset win for the Israeli side. Of course, things do look grim for Lugano now. However, I would not be shocked to see the visitors qualify.. The difference in raw class between these two teams is not big but I still stick to my original analysis made before the first leg that Lugano are slightly better. I did raise the hosts’ power rating that illustrates the teams’ pure class a bit after the first leg though. Their defense had a more solid structure and level overall than I would have expected – offensively they were at the expected level. Beer Sheva are surely the favorites at their stadium, but they do not have to win – even a loss by one goal’s difference would suit them well here and their fans of course realize this too. This is proven over the years to affect the players’ minds – no matter how professional they are! The team “chasing” almost always has a slight edge in football if the teams are more or less balanced. The chance of Lugano not losing is in my view 56-57% so the +0.5 goals’ handicap is an excellent choice for a smart bettor here!

Home advantage is almost always massive in international club competitions and for Israelli teams playing at home is even more important than for teams from some other countries. I am fully aware of Beer Sheva’s strong home record - they have not lost at their stadium for a long time. However, we must keep in mind that the Israeli Ligat Ha’al is overall not at the same level as the Swiss Super League and I think the betting market over-emphasizes this factor here. The best Israeli teams are quite good by European standards but behind them the level drops a lot. Beer Sheva finished in 2nd place last season but I do not think they can make top 2 this season as they did over-perform last last season. I was surely disappointed on Lugano’s performance last week but they can surely improve, especially offensive as they do have a lot of talented offensive players - also in the midfield. They will surely push hard right from the kickoff and of course take some risks too. En early goal would be crucial for them. They did record a 53% ball possession and also had much more scoring chances (11-5) as well as attacks and dangerous attacks than Beer Sheva. 1-2 if I would have to pick a score here!