Atletico Go VS Corinthians

Atletico Go host Corinthians for this Copa do Brasil (Brazil Cup) quarter finals first leg clash at Estádio Antonio Accioly in Goiânia Thursday morning Beijing time. By raw class the visitors are undoubtedly the better team but cup matches – similarly to derbys - often are slightly different from normal league matches – in other words more balanced than the league table would suggest.. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com the hosts’ players’ total market value is just 18.40 million euros, but this is definitely too low, and 27-28 million euros would be a more realistic number! As a team they often play better than the players’ individual skill-level would suggest. The players’ total market value is a quite useful good indicator of a team’s level on the pitch. However, if two players are equally good - and one of them is 21 years old and the other one is 31 - the younger player is, of course, much more valuable.. Indeed, a team’s total market value can also be misleading.. Even so, football bettors as well as bookmakers pay more and more attention to this number.. Corinthians’ squad is valued at just shy of 112 million which is way too high! I would say around 75 million to be a more correct estimate.. Many of their talented (and valuable) players often do not seem to find their best level and under-perform. Some of their players are quite selfish too – not ideal team players.

Despite all the negative things mentioned above Corinthians currently occupy the 2nd place in Serie A with respectable 35 points as such to their account. They have won 10 of the 19 matches in this league. However, they have clearly over-performed in terms of expected points and are definitely over-valued on the betting market in this match as well! Expected points is one of the key statistical tools used by most professional football bettors to find lucrative matches and teams to bet on. Their not-so-great goal-difference of 24:19 also reflects the fact that they have indeed been quite lucky in many matches – winning several games where a draw would or even a loss, in fact, would have been the fair result! For example, in their most recent match they robbed all three points from Atletico MG through a 2-1 away win. The hosts recorded more ball possession and had the advantage in goal attempts 14-7 as well shots on target. They also recorded considerably more completed passes and dangerous attacks. Corinthians were clear underdogs in this match according to the bookies though. Before this they played okay, but not great beating Coritiba 3-1 at home as clear favorites. Atletico GO, on the other hand, are having a rather disappointing season in Serie A so far, especially result-wise. They have grabbed 17 points and are in the 18th place in this league with a total of 20 teams. They have not had luck on their side and the potential for better performances, especially offensively, is there! In cup they have played much better and crushed Goias 3-0 away from home about two weeks ago. I think they are slightly more motivated than Corinthians here and with today’s expected lineups they are the favorites! Cup is their chance to possibly achieve something worthwhile this season. They will have good, loyal fans cheering for them today. The recommended +0.5 goals handicap bet on the hosts has a high chance of winning as even a draw would be enough.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周4上午，戈竞技主场Estádio Antonio Accioly与科林蒂安进行巴西杯四分之一决赛首回合比赛。客队无疑是一支更好的球队，但杯赛——类似于德比——往往与正常的联赛稍有不同——换句话说，比排名表所显示的更平衡。根据德国知名知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，东道主球员的总市值只有1840万欧元，但这绝对是太低了，2700万- 2800万欧元会是一个更现实的数字!作为一个团队，他们的表现往往比球员个人技术水平所显示的要好。球员的总市值是一个相当有用的很好的指标，球队在球场上的水平。然而，如果两名球员同样优秀，其中一名21岁，另一名31岁，那么年轻的球员当然更有价值。事实上，一个团队的总市值也可能是误导。即便如此，足球博彩公司以及博彩公司对这个数字的关注度也越来越高。科林蒂安的球队身价接近1.12亿，这实在是太高了!我认为更准确的估计是7500万左右。他们的许多天才(和有价值的)球员似乎常常没有发现自己的最佳水平，表现不佳。他们的一些球员也很自私——不是理想的团队成员。

尽管上面提到了所有负面的事情，科林蒂安目前以可观的35分占据了意甲第二的位置。在这个联赛的19场比赛中，他们赢了10场。然而，他们在预期积分方面的表现明显超过了预期，而且在这场比赛中的博彩市场肯定也被高估了!预期积分是大多数职业足球投注者用来寻找有利可图的比赛和球队的关键统计工具之一。他们24:19的不太大的净胜球差距也反映了他们在许多比赛中确实很幸运的事实——赢了几场比赛，而事实上，平局甚至输球本来是公平的结果!例如，在最近的一场比赛中，他们通过客场2-1的胜利从戈竞技手中夺走了3分。东道主取得了更多的控球机会，并在14-7的射门和射正上占据优势。他们也记录了更多完整的传球和危险的攻击。不过根据博彩公司的说法，科林蒂安在这场比赛中明显处于劣势。在此之前，他们踢得还行，但在主场3-1击败科里蒂巴并不是他们的大热门。另一方面，到目前为止，戈竞技在意甲的表现相当令人失望，尤其是在比赛结果方面。他们拿下了17分，在20支球队中排名第18。他们运气不好，但他们有潜力取得更好的表现，尤其是在进攻端。在杯赛中，他们踢得更好，大约两周前客场3-0击败了戈亚斯。我认为他们比科林蒂安更有动力，今天的阵容让他们更受欢迎!杯赛是他们在本赛季取得一些有价值的成绩的机会。今天，他们会有忠实的粉丝为他们加油。

戈竞技不败是我的选择。