I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the latest odds movements.

Odds on Sarmiento win slashed down by 0.15 in last couple of hours on big Asian markets with the highest possible limits and I fully agree with this trend. I see really good chances for hosts to make at least one point in today's match up.

Sarmiento currently have superb streak at home against Defensa as they won last 4 consecutive home matches against them. Last time both teams played each other at this stadium in April and Sarmiento won 2:1. It's big mental advantage.

I don't see Defensa as a fav here, in last round they recorded first win after streak of 7 matches without a win. They recorded home win against probably the worst team in whole league at the moment - Aldovisi. Defensa were behind 0:2, but Aldovisi received red card and because of that allowed Defensa to make comeback. I'm still not convinced by guests of today's game.

Sarmiento is really solid team at home - in last home game they stopped Racing Club. So far they are unbeaten at home (7 points from 9 available). As we already saw in H2H section Defensa also had big problems to make some points here.

On those circumstances I'm convinced by market movement, Defensa simply not deserved to be favorite here.