Colon Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield

Colon Santa Fe welcome Velez Sarsfield Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 7 clash in Santa Fe early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is of decent level overall and offers pretty good entertainment for football fans. We have also done quite well betting on this low-scoring league. Today we have a match between two teams who are not at their best at the moment, and I do not expect many goals. Indeed, I see this match as even more low-scoring than the betting market does and the probability of a draw is higher than in this league on average. This result would be enough to bring my fans and me another winner with the +0.5 goals handicap option on the hosts. The chance of winning is 76% as the Velez Sarsfield are more clear favorites than the odds suggest. They are the better team by raw class and in better form. Their players’ total market value is according to a well-known and respected German website Transfermarkt.com is about 47 million euros - which is correct in my view. The hosts’ squad, on the other hand, is 36.40 million which is too high. At least four players are over-valued and I would say 28 million would be a fair number. Players’ total market value is a surprisingly good indicator on a team’s performance on the pitch.

Neither team have convinced offensively lately but the visitors still do have more potential in this area of the game and will probably score here.. They have had a decent offensive structure in their most recent matches but have lacked creativity. Their defense has, however, been very solid lately and they did well to qualify to the quarter finals in a respected competition Copa Libertadores over one of the biggest and most traditional club in Argentina, River Plate as very clear underdogs. They won the first leg at home 1-0 and five days ago the second leg was a goalless battle. Perhaps they did have some luck on their side too but I still liked they way they played and fought! Between these cup matches they were defeated at home by Atletico Tucuman, a decent team but were the better team for most of the 90 minutes and would have deserved at least a draw after almost 70% ball possession and much more attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts have been bad lately failing to win any of their latest six matches – losing five of these. Moreover, they have won just one of their latest 10 games. They can improve but would probably need luck to win today. They also do not have the best home fans which lowers the home advantage. They have scored just two goals in their most recent five matches and I would not be surprised if they failed to find the net here..