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英国亚马逊员工,常年现场看各级别联赛,非常熟悉球队,有十多年经验盈利丰厚。
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Superb value! It's 'must play' bet 美职足 洛杉矶FCvs洛城银河

2022-07-08

比赛分析

美职足

已完赛

星期六2022-07-09 10:00

解读理由

In my opinion Los Angeles Galaxy have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.


It's a derby of Los Angeles so home advantage it's not so big like in normal circumstances. Galaxy last match played in Los Angeles so they don't have to travel anywhere, on the others hand LAFC in last game played on away against Vancouver.


In my eyes Galaxy is extremely underrated in this game - currently they have good streak against LAFC as they didn't lost against them in last 5 consecutive matches. On bigger picture that also looks good - Galaxy didn't lost in 12 of last 15 matches against LAFC.


Numbers looks good for LAFC, but they had a lot of luck so far. They scored 35 goals in current season of MLS, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 32. On the other hand Galaxy scored 'only' 24 goals, but according to the expected goals scored they should score 30.9.


On the paper LAFC form looks better (4-1-1) than Galaxy (2-2-2), but both teams deserved for different outcomes. LAFC in last 6 matches scored 11 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 9.44. They conceded 5 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 6.11. On the other hand Galaxy in last 6 matches scored 12 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 14.21. They conceded 9 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 7.67. On those circumstances is hard to say that LAFC is in much better form or something like that.


Galaxy coming for this game in great mood - in last round they completely outplayed 4:0 at home strong Montreal. All Galaxy top players like Hernandez, Joveljic, Edwards, Delgado or Araujo looked great in that game and for sure team wants to go with momentum today. LAFC coming here after poor loss 0:1 on away against Vancouver (only 7 shots, 0.39 expected goals scored). There is also many questions about squad, in last match top players like Vela, Palacios, Cifuentes or Rodriguez not played and they are questionable today. We saw how poor team looked without them against Vancouver.


All in all, huge value on Galaxy here. It's a must play bet.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,洛杉矶银河队有很好的机会在今天的比赛中取得至少一分。

这是一场洛杉矶德比,所以主场优势不像正常情况下那么大。银河的上一场比赛是在洛杉矶,所以他们不需要去任何地方,而另一方面,LAFC的上一场比赛是在客场对阵温哥华。

在我看来,银河队在这场比赛中被严重低估了——目前他们对LAFC的表现很好,因为他们在过去的5场比赛中都没有输给他们。从更大的角度来看,这看起来也不错——银河在过去15场对阵LAFC的比赛中有12场没有输。

数字看起来对LAFC来说还不错,但到目前为止他们运气还不错。他们在本赛季的MLS中打进了35球,但根据预期进球模型,他们应该打进32球。另一方面,银河队“只”进了24球,但根据预期进球数,他们应该进30.9球。

从纸面上看,LAFC的阵型(4-1-1)比银河(2-2-2)更好,但两支球队的结果不同。LAFC近6场比赛打进11球,但根据预期进球模型,他们应该打进9.44球。他们丢了5球,但根据预期丢球模型,他们应该丢6.11球。另一方面,银河队在最近6场比赛打进12球,但按照预期进球模式,他们应该打进14.21球。他们丢了9球,但根据预期丢球模型,他们应该丢7.67球。在这种情况下,很难说LAFC的状态更好或类似的情况。

银河队带着很好的心情来参加这场比赛——上一轮他们在主场4:0击败了强大的蒙特利尔。所有银河的顶级球员,比如埃尔南德斯、约维尔季奇、爱德华兹、德尔加多和阿劳霍,在那场比赛中都表现得很好,毫无疑问,球队今天想要保持势头。LAFC在客场0:1输给温哥华之后来到这里(只有7次射门,0.39个预期进球)。还有很多关于球队阵容的问题,在上一场比赛中,像贝拉、帕拉西奥斯、西富恩特斯和罗德里格斯这样的顶级球员没有上场,今天他们的阵容也有问题。在对阵温哥华的比赛中,我们看到了没有他们的球队是多么糟糕。

总而言之,银河在这里价值不菲。

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