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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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An interesting game in Argentina!

2022-07-05

比赛分析

阿甲

已完赛

星期二2022-07-05 04:00

解读理由

Arsenal Sarandi VS Estudiantes La Plata


Arsenal Sarandi host Estudiantes La Plata for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 6 clash at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona in Avellaneda early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is not a very high-level league actually and the differences in terms of financial resources - and also on the pitch are unfortunately big.. Despite being no higher than in the 15th place the visitors are a very strong team and they, in fact, even won the Group B in Copa De La Liga Profesional but did not do too well in the play offs though. The most iconic and the super-rich club, Boca Juniors also played in this group. This competition was played before this Liga Profesional kicked off. Indeed, they grabbed an impressive 28 points in 14 matches and had a very convincing goal difference of 33:20. They lost just two matches and one game away from home – great statistics! The home advantage is substantial in this league, but Arsenal Sarandi do not have the best home crowd – not even close! Arsenal Sarandi are definitely not a bad team but I would still say they over-performed and had some luck on their side in Copa De La Liga Profesional. However, they finished in 8th place with a total of 17 points to their account. Their goal difference was 20:19.

Neither team have been at their best lately but still the visitors have looked a lot better on the pitch overall. Indeed, Arsenal Sarandi have failed to win any of their latest five matches, they have played four draws in a row though. This result would most certainly not be a surprise as the visitors have had some offensive issues lately. The potential is big in this department though as there is a bunch of skilled attacking players in the squad. They have also had some bad luck in terms of expected goals (xG) so far. They have a 45% chance of winning here but with the recommended bet - +0.5 goals handicap on them the chance of my fans and I winning is 75%. I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does, and based on this rationale odds on the draw are a bit too high as well. The visitors played well as clear underdogs according to the bookies in their most recent match against Brazilian Forteleza. It was a 1-1 draw, but the Argentinian recorded more shots on target and dangerous attacks in this overall very balances match. The hosts, on the other hand, were extremely lucky to grab a point through a 1-1 draw in their most recent match away from home against Argentinos Juniors. The host massively dominated the match with 70% ball possession and should have won, they recorded much more scoring attempts and especially dangerous attacks as well as expected goals.

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