U.Catolica VS Coquimbo

U.Catolica welcome Coquimbo for this Chilean Primera Division round 16 clash Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo early Monday morning Beijing time.This league is of somewhat low-level compared to many other South American leagues – Brazilian Serie A or Argentinian Liga Profesional. Goal expectancy on average is higher than in those two leagues, but I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market. This makes the handicap bet on the heavy underdog pretty lucrative. Let’s take a closer look..

There is, of course, no doubt that the hosts are the better team. The home advantage must not be forgotten – even keeping in mind that U. Catolica are not a particularly strong home team. They have won five of their latest 10 matches at home – but have also lost four and of these 10 games they have have won with the goals’ difference just twice. They are 57% favorites to win this match but with the +1.5 handicap the chance of my fans and I winning the bet on the visitors is 71%. This is a battle between two pretty lowly teams as the hosts currently occupy the 12th place in the standings with 19 points in the bank. They also do not have a strong goal difference – 19:24. Their defense has bene pretty shaky lately and I expect the visitors to score at least one goal here. In their most recent match in this league they did, in fact, keep a clean sheet against the rock-bottom Antofagasta. The 1-0 home win over this lowly team did not convince me though and unless they improve the will probably not win by more than one goal here. In their most recent match, they got heavily beaten by Brazilian Sao Paulo 2-4 at home and their defense had no structure at all. They were only moderate underdogs in this match according to the betting market. Before this they did qualify in Chilean Cup beating a small tea, San Felipe twice - 3-1 and 3-0 as massive favorites. Good performances as such but the opposition was weak.. Coquimbo also qualified in the cup 2-1 on aggregate over Melipilla. In this league they have been unlucky in many matches will surely challenge the hosts here.