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芬兰人,有自己投注模型,公开记录的2136场比赛场均盈利率超10%
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Some free thoughts - a new coach!

2022-06-28

比赛分析

芬兰杯

已完赛

星期二2022-06-28 23:30

客队查普斯LOGO

查普斯

解读理由

Basically this is free because I do not like the handicap here available, although with these odds it is big value!

In short, the correct asian handicap here would be -2.25. Probably, as there are some questionmarks I will introduce to you below:

Class-difference on paper is big as they are in different leagues. In Finland the pyramid is rather steep so we can assume always that the higher league team wins. Against one league lower the difference in goals is somewhere between 1 and 3 goals depending on the actual class of the teams, against two leagues lower it is already from 3 to 6 goals.

Now Lahti are in the bottom-3 in the Premier League, it is worse than expected and they did fire their coach Zeneli last week and will search better performances with Mikko Mannila who is known to do well with new teams and not afraid to give responsibility to young players. And there is a plenty of young talent at Lahti!

JäPS on the other hand are now midtable at Ykkönen, they were expected to be the clear bottom team as they still have in general the same squad they had in the lower league on their promotion season. Most people saw them still as a 3rd tier class team, including me.

But they have done well, the position is rather deserved, but is there a but? Let us look at their results away against the top-half teams of their league:

TPS v JäPS 3-0

Gnistan v JäPS 10-1.

Is there a reason to worry?

Team news are not in a big picture as none of the JäPS players would make it to the Lahti team. It is to say so as they are in a co-operation regionally and best players of the area are always introduced to Lahti and have a chance in trials. Yet is rather certain that JäPS best striker Aleksi Ristola is unavailable.

So in the best case scenario we would have a Premier league midtable team at home against a Kakkonen class side - 2 tiers lower - who also miss their best scorer and who have been very shy away against bigger teams.

Would a -2.5 be justified? Definitely.

The questionmarks naturally are the fact the a new coach is always a new coach,

and secondly that Lahti have no need to win big, they have the need to qualify.

If you have a chance for a -2 with lower odds I would take that happily.

Hope this helps if you are analyzing the game, have a nice day!

2,3,4-0.


免费分享。我不喜欢这样的让步,这场比赛很有价值!

简而言之,这里正确的让步为-2.25。大概,因为有一些不确定的因素我会在下面介绍: 纸面上的实力差异很大,因为他们在不同的联赛中。在芬兰,金字塔相当陡峭,所以我们总是可以假设更高级别的球队获胜。根据球队的实际级别,对阵低一个联赛的进球差异在 1 到 3 个进球之间,而对阵低两个联赛的进球数已经从 3 到 6 个。

现在拉赫蒂在顶级联赛中排名倒数第三,比预期的还要糟糕,他们上周解雇了他们的教练泽内利,并将与米科曼尼拉一起寻找更好的表现,后者以在新球队中表现出色并且不怕承担责任而闻名对年轻球员。拉赫蒂有很多年轻的天才!

另一方面,查普斯现在在次级联赛中处于中间位置,预计他们会成为明显的垫底球队,因为他们总体上仍然拥有与升级赛季低级联赛相同的阵容。大多数人仍然认为他们是一个三流的球队,包括我在内。

但是他们做得很好,处在这个位置是当之无愧的,但是让我们看看他们在客场对阵联赛上半场的比赛中取得的成绩。

有理由担心吗?

球队新闻并不重要,因为没有一个查普斯球员能够进入拉赫蒂的一线队。也就是说,由于他们在区域内进行合作,并且该地区的最佳球员总是被介绍给拉赫蒂并有机会参加试训。然而,可以肯定的是,查普斯的最佳前锋阿列克西·里斯托拉不可用。

所以在最好的情况下,我们会有一支联赛中游球队在主场迎战低级别联赛级别的球队——比他们低 2 级的球队——他们也缺少了他们的最佳射手,并且在面对更强的球队时战绩糟糕。

-2.5 是否合理?确实。 这问号自然是新教练总是新教练的事实, 其次,拉赫蒂不需要大胜,他们需要晋级。

如果您有机会选择-2也是不错的选择。

希望这对您分析会有所帮助,祝好运!

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