Lanus vs Colon Santa Fe

Lanus host Colon Santa Fe for this Liga Professional round clash at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanus early Monday morning Beijing time. Neither team are among the favorites in this surprisingly low-level league where the differences in terms of financial resources - and also on the pitch are unfortunately quite big. Even, so this watching this league is certainly not a bad idea for football lovers now that all the best European leagues are on a break. Colon Santa Fe are undoubtedly the better team by raw class, and I cannot understand why the betting market sees the hosts as favorites in this clash! The visitors played better in Copa De La Liga Profesional that was played during the spring before this league started. Had Colon Santa Fe not been unlucky in terms of expected points the difference in points between the two teams would have been bigger. They would have deserved more points in the last 5-6 matches of Copa De LaLiga Profesional. I see the visitors as slim favorites here and with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option the chance of winning is 68%. A draw would certainly not be a surprise as both teams, but especially Lanus have been somewhat inefficient offensively lately and not the goal expectancy is not high here. Indeed, Lanus have scored just two goals in their three most recent matches. They also do not have the best fans, so I give the home advantage less emphasis here than in many other matches in this league.

Lanus are not a small team by financial resources and their players’ total market value according to a well-respected German website Transfermarkt.com is around 40 million euros. This number is some 7-8 million too high in my opinion though.. However, they just keep underperforming, and the betting market should not respect them this much.. I simply do not see a rapid improvement for them. They have won just one of their latest five matches and are winless in this league so far. They were very bad in their most recent match against Atletico Tucuman and lost 1-2 despite the close to 60% ball possession. They created just two scoring chances – the hosts had 12. Moreover, they only recorded one shot on target. We must remember that A. Tucuman are not even a very strong team.. Before this they played okay against a pretty dangerous team Defensa Y Justicia and it was a 1-1 home draw. In the season opener, they, once again, lacked offensive creativity and structure and failed to take advantage of the one man advantage they had for about 40 minutes after Rosario Central’s defender Marcelo Central was sent off and it was a goalless draw. The visitors, on the other had have played well lately and have not lost any of their latest three matches and have five points in the bank at the moment.