Tenerife vs Girona

Tenerife and Girona will lock horns for the second leg of their Segunda Division playoff final at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López in Santa Cruz de Tenerife. The stakes are ultra-high as the winner are promoted to LaLiga, the first tier of Spanish football! I expect a more low-scoring match than the betting market does and especially the first half will probably be pretty cautious football.. The first leg ended in a goalless draw. The chance of a draw is 34% here and this result would bring my fans and me yet another winner betting on Spanish football. Indeed, we won a whopping nine bets in a row betting on LaLiga before the summer break started. The chance of winning with the visitors +0.5 goals handicap option is 68%. Indeed, I really do not understand the odds offered by the bookies here – let’s take a closer look..

First of all, Girona totally dominated the first leg and would have deserved to win by at least one goal’s difference! I have, in fact, watched the match twice. Girona has almost 70% ball possession and recorded close to 20 scoring attempts – Tenerife had only 3. The visitors also managed just one shot on target. The home advantage is of course there, and Tenerife will surely be more aggressive and confident in front of the home crowd, but they do not have the best fans. As a result, the home advantage is lower than on average.. Indeed, Tenerife have won just three of their latest 10 matches at their small island. They did win their most recent match at home though. It was a somewhat undeserved 1-0 win in the first leg of semi-finals over Las Palmas who had 72% ball possession and recorded more shots on target and completed 500 passes – Tenerife’s number was just 147. This was quite surprising as Tenerife were set as clear favorites by the betting market.. They had very poor offensive structure indeed. They were lucky also in the second leg in Las Palmas grabbing an undeserved 2-1 win. These wins seem to affect the odds too much here.

Girona, on the other hand, were not at their best against Eibar in the semi-finals but qualified 2-1 on aggregate. They can, and I believe will, improve especially offensively for this match. Tenerife have been absent from LaLiga since the 2009-10 season, even operating in the Segunda B in both 2011-12 and 2012-13! Girona last played in LaLiga in 2018-19, being relegated after finishing 18th in the standings, and they have played at a solid level in this league for many years in a row and have been in the Segunda Division playoffs in the last three seasons. They are also a clearly bigger team by players’ total market value against a respected German website Transfermarkt.com. The number is about 30 million euros. The visitors' squad is valued at 19.40 million, which is definitely too high in my opinion! At least three players are over-valued.

Tenerife will again be without the services of Pablo Larrea due to a nasty knee injury. As for the visitors, Michel's side have reported no injuries from the first leg. Michel is a terrific coach and I trust him especially when the stakes are sky-high. Girona are expected to have a full squad available for this battle. A 3-5-2 formation should again see Pol Lozano and Aleix Garcia feature in midfield, with most probably Arnau Martinez and Valery Fernandez in the wing-back positions. Cristhian Stuani has scored a respectable 23 goals in this league during a convincing season, and the still fresh and dangerous 35-year-old is a player to watch here!

特内里费和赫罗纳将在圣克鲁斯德特内里费的埃利奥多罗罗德里格斯洛佩斯体育场，西乙联赛季后赛决赛第二回合的角逐。获胜者将升入西班牙足球的一级联赛西甲，价值非常高！我预计一场比平局得分更低的比赛，尤其是上半场可能会非常谨慎。第一回合比赛以零球平局告终。平局的几率是 34%，这个结果将给我们带来另一场盈利。事实上，在暑假开始之前，我们连续赢得了高达 9 次投注西班牙的比赛。客队 +0.5 球让分选项获胜的机会是 68%。确实，我真的不明白这里的机构提供的赔率——让我们仔细看看..

首先，赫罗纳完全控制了第一回合的比赛，至少以一球之差就应该获胜！事实上，我已经看了两场比赛。赫罗纳拥有近 70% 的控球率并记录了近 20 次得分尝试——特内里费只有 3 次。客队也只射中了一次球门。主场优势当然是有的，特内里费在主场观众面前肯定会更有侵略性和自信，但他们没有最好的球迷。结果，主场优势低于平均水平。事实上，特内里费岛最近 10 场比赛在他们的小岛上只赢了 3 场。不过，他们确实在主场赢得了最近的一场比赛。半决赛首回合以 1 比 0 战胜拉斯帕尔马斯，这有点不应该，后者拥有 72% 的控球率、更多的射门次数和完成 500 次传球——特内里费的数字仅为 147。这非常令人惊讶，因为特内里费是被高看的一方。他们的进攻结构确实很差，在拉斯帕尔马斯的第二回合比赛中也很幸运，以 2-1 的比分取得了当之无愧的胜利。这些胜利似乎对赔率影响太大这里。

另一方面，赫罗纳在半决赛对阵埃巴尔的比赛中表现不佳，但总比分 2-1 晋级。他们可以而且我相信他们会在这场比赛中尤其在进攻端有所提高。自 2009-10 赛季以来，特内里费一直缺席西甲联赛，甚至在 2011-12 和 2012-13 赛季都在乙级联赛中效力！赫罗纳上一次在西甲出战是在2018-19赛季，在积分榜上排名第18位后降级，他们连续多年在西甲联赛中保持稳定的水平，最近三个赛季都在西甲季后赛。与受人尊敬的德国网站 Transfermarkt.com 相比，从球员的总市值来看，他们也是一支明显更大的球队。这个数字约为3000万欧元。客队价值1940万，在我看来绝对太高了！至少有三名球员被高估。

由于严重的膝伤，特内里费将再次失去巴勃罗·拉雷亚。至于客队，米歇尔这边报道没有受伤。米歇尔是一位了不起的教练，我相信他。赫罗纳预计将有一个完整的小队参加这场战斗。3-5-2 阵型应该再次看到波尔洛萨诺和阿莱克斯加西亚出现在中场，最有可能的是阿瑙马丁内斯和瓦列里费尔南德斯在边后卫位置。克里斯蒂安·斯图亚尼在这个令人信服的赛季中打进了令人尊敬的 23 个联赛进球，而这位 35 岁的球员是值得关注的！